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Sandy - Raleigh's picture

Greinke deserves it for the superior ERA with the far inferior defense, (and equally abysmal offensive support), compared to Felix.
Felix is likely to win it ... because voters DO focus far more on wins than on the other stats.  Yes, some ERA guys w/o best W/L records have won the thing.  But, typically that is when their ERA is a run better than the top win guys.  Greinke has a great ERA.  Felix isn't very far behind him in ERA.
While most net rats scoff and sneer at stats like ERA and Wins and Losses, the truth is, most writers, (like most fans), remain stuck in the statistical stoneage.  There may be movement in the trenches, but it is generational movement.  Twenty years from now, maybe the most deserving guy wins.  But that day ain't today.  Today, the Bill James math model is likely still strongly in play.  By catching up to CC in Wins, and trailing Greinke by not-so-much in ERA, it is VERY likely that Felix snags a not-as-close-as-one-might-think CY award.  Voters MIGHT look at offensive support -- and the dead-last in runs scored Ms don't hurt the King's case.  Almost none will factor in defense.  Even the sabrdweebs know that defensive metrics are a hash of confusion not to be trusted.  Greinke doesn't get any help, (and Felix no harm), based on their defensive support.
 

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