Add new comment

No, I didn't mention FA dollars.  I also didn't mention pitching.  My attempt was to more or less set up a starting point template from where Jack likely begins.  Even at that, I made assumptions, (like Beltre gone -- the Wilson twins back -- maybe trading Joh). 
I was trying not to lobby for a particular decision tree - but primarily attempting to point out that whatever decisions are made will be without perfect knowledge.  Doc is weak on Carp.  If he's GM, then he's likely thinking 1B/DH for trade or FA fishing.  But, Doc has already noted that this is *HIS* read on what he thinks this guy can do.  Lopez got 20 HRs in the final 4 months of the season.  Many felt he was a lost cause back in 2007.  Imperfect knowledge is the key here.  With prospects it is ALWAYS "best guess" with emphasis on guess.
Yes, there is room to replace any one of those prospects with a mid-level FA.  But which one?  Say Beltre walks, and the club signs ... Troy Glaus, (I'm just sayin').  Tui heads back to AAA.  How much does Glaus actually help the club in terms of competing for a title in 2010?  I dunno.  Z doesn't know.  Tui *might* be as productive as Glaus as a rookie. 
Or, if you go out and get the sabrdrool Dunn.  You putting him in LF and sending Saunders back down?  Or, do you return Carp to AAA, (which REALLY makes that whole Putz deal troubling)?  Maybe you gamble on flipping Branyan over to 3B, which shoves Tui back into the minors.  There's lots and lots of options -- but whatever choice you make is based on guessing which prospects are MLB-ready.
===========
The rotation and bullpen are once again another mountain of macaroni to sling at the wall.  Felix and RRS and Snell are probably pretty safe based on performance and investment.  But investment makes Silva a likely returnee to the rotation.  But, given the sheer number of AAAA arms in the fold, doing a many-for-one salary-relief trade with a poor club sounds like a plan.  Or, maybe you spend more dollars on getting Bedard back on a 1-year.
A rotation of: Felix, Bedard, RRS, Snell, Silva doesn't leave room for Fister or Morrow.  Okay, Fister was just a late season surprise, so giving him some more AAA time isn't a big deal, perhaps.  But, it's really getting time to either commit or cut ties with Morrow.  Are you really going to put French, Olson and Vargas ALL in the pen? 
============
If I'm GM, given the sheer number of players with uncertain production, I would lean toward maintaining as much payroll flexibility as I could for MID-SEASON trading.  By July 31, hopefully you've got a read on which prospects are likely to succeed, and who you need to move.  And if you hold onto that 8-12 million of payroll flex, then come July, you may be in a stronger position to deal for need than the competition who already maxed out their budget. 
==========
My lineup is not a proposal of what should be done - but just a starting point for jumping off in whichever direction seems best.  The complexity is not in the choice of going after this FA or that FA.  The complexity is in juggling all of these REAL PEOPLE fighting their hardest for a job.  Branyan and Gutz and Aardsma blossomed.  Cedeno, YuBet, Wlad crumbled. 
The next decisions are harder.  As the talent pool in the organization grows, the ramifications of each choice will have greater ripple effects across the franchise.  In 2009, there were many choices where winning was almost guaranteed.  (Hard not to do better than Sexson and Vidro and Feierabend).  As the bottom run on the totem changes from a .500 hitter to a .650 hitter to a .700 hitter, the moves get harder and more riskly.  As the bottom pitchers go from having ERAs of 8.00 to 6.00 to 5.00, the choices get harder and riskier. 
14 team -- 4 get in.  It ain't easy to win in the majors, even if you are better than average.