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Taro's picture

The Ms were unlucky in raw runs scored this year. They were poor in RISP.
The Ms had a 716 OPS vs an opponents OPS of 710.
Ms: .258/.314/.402
Opponents: .247/.316/.394
The Ms' raw WAR adds up to around 83 and considering strength of schedule they pretty much ended up where they should be (a team slightly over .500).
In 2007? The Ms had a 762 team OPS vs opponnents OPS of 780. They were LEGITIMATELY lucky that year. An 88 win team that deserved to have a losing record. Thats something we should have seen coming.
The encouraging thing about the Ms this year IMO is that they are built on the strength of their stars - Felix, Ichiro, and Gutierrez. Lopez, Beltre, and Washburn were the only other players over 2 WAR and the team is full of >1 WAR position players. RRS and Bedard were the only other SPs over 1 WAR. The 6th best position player was Johjima this year. The Ms are 'easier' to upgrade since they are so extremely strong at the top and weak at the bottom.
The Angels aren't going to run a .326 BABIP next year OR run an 833 OPS in high leverage situations. Maybe they'll go +5 wins over their expected total again too, but I wouldn't bet on it. LAA is going to get worse, Texas and Oakland will be even better (Oakland potentially a lot better). The Ms have their work cut out for them, but '10 isn't a long-shot IMO.

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