I noted back when he was hot that August would be telling. What did Johnson do in August?
.267/.313/.383/.696 - BABIP = .300 BB/K = 4/9
As predicted, his walk totals plunged back to his norm. But, EVERY other stat more or less repeated what he had done in July. The .412 OPS he posted in September I'm writing off as attempting to play thru injury, (rookie trying to hold onto a starting job - can anyone blame him for underselling any injuries?)
My take? Johnson is ALREADY a .700 hitting catcher. He's only got 290 PAs at this point, so there's still some (limited) upside -- the .730 area I noted previously.
Everything I've read about his particular health issues to me suggests that they were likely the culprit in his ability to generate bat speed, (which led to a .150 BABIP in September, just fyi). He actually had a good 4/6 BB/K split in September. His eye is solid and still developing. But, he simply couldn't swing the bat through the pain. I also think the concerns about his health (short term), are overstated.
The state of medical repairs these days are fantastic. And him being ready to start working out by ST wouldn't be outside of normal rehab. This type of injury, I'm not finding much info on long term prospects. The basic texts I've found seem to indicate that Johnson's condition historically has gone untreated in many - and that use of arthoscopic surgery to repair is "relatively" new. But, scoping is the least invasive (and quickest to heal from) surgery around.
The big question is whether this is going to be a chronic condition ... because obviously catchers put great stress on their hip muscles. In all honesty, however, everything suggests that unless there is an underlying genetic condition involved, you're likely looking at the same chance of reinjury that any RB would have after having his knees scoped.
The biggest block to Johnson HITTING in 2010 is more likely going to be the wrist injury. Maybe the hip thing prevented him from turning on balls - but I think it more likely the wrist pain caused the September tanking. And wrist injuries seem to have more erratic return-to-norm results based on my very casual knowledge from previous injured players.
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