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glmuskie's picture

I too am very skeptical of speculation on the Angel's imminent demise.
Gotta say though, BABIP seems to me one of the most poorly understood and misused stats out there.  Not that I understand it, mind you...  just that whatever point people are arguing, they can use BABIP to bolster their argument.  Player X is going to improve because his BABIP was unlucky and it will correct.  No, Player X will not improve because his BABIP has been trenging downward...
The argument with Sexson was his BABIP was so epically low that he was guaranteed to improve.  Well, he didn't, really.  Same argument being made for Junior going forward, and I don't buy it.
Baseline BABIP seems to be a different number for different players.  What would be interesting to me is to determine how different players 'beat' BABIP.  In some cases it's obvious, like with Ichiro.  Speed, ability to transition from swinging to running quickly, ability to hit the other way and aim the ball, those are skills that improve it.  If you could isolate and quantify those skills and others that lead to improved BABIP, well then you can scout and evaluate talent a little better.  And you could identify which of those skills is more likely to deteriorate more quickly, to help determine when to bail on a given player.
Maybe that is something like what the Angels are doing in talent eval.  Or maybe they just look at players with above average BABIP and figure, however they are doing it, it's repeatable and we want to bring them in.

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