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I think the thing that sabermetricians still don't do very well when they try to make projections is handle players that don't fall into an easy category.  If you can place a pitcher into a family of similar guys...similar physical attributes, similar mechanics, similar pitch arsenal, similar results...then the projections you get tend to be pretty solid.  Michael Pineda blows up PECOTA though.  I can't think of a guy exactly like Pineda.  Ramon Martinez was short like his brother Pedro.  Javier Vazquez is tall but very built, not lanky and smooth as silk.  Extreme control-artist pitchers who also have massive K rates are rare as is...finding one who matches Pineda's mechanical family is next to impossible.
Pineda has Doug Fister's command plus a bunch of K pitches (unlike Fister himself)...I just...really have a strong feeling about him
On top of that, he's doing something to my own sense of pattern recognition.  He learns very quickly, adjusts easily to new situations, and is maturing very rapidly.  The combination of his power results and his age arc and his weird lack of a similar-pitcher family are ringing alarm bells in my head.  This is the kind of thing I try to do all the time...I see patterns in the data and make suppositions and see if they turn out right.  I am supposing that Pineda is a superstar in the making if he stays healthy.