I dunno that I'd expect Nick to "get healthy" in 2010 - "more healthy" is all I can ask for - but as for his slugging:
ISO by year:
2002: 159
2003: 188
2004: 147
2005: 190
2006: 230
2008 (100 ABs): 211
2009: 107
So - 2009 was BY FAR his worst slugging year. You could bet on 150 for his first 3 years in the league and then around 200 for his next couple.
Would you bet that his slugging is gonna be 107 again, or that it's probably going to go up to at least what he was as a wet-behind-the-ears rook (again, assuming some skewed version of health)? I don't think his injuries permanently robbed his power, any more than Sexson's did when we signed him. He broke his femur (not a power risk) and tore his ulnar ligament (potential power risk, but more likely a 2 year injury recovery timetable). By way of comparison: our new CF of the future, Ackley, tore his UCL and had Tommy John surgery. It sapped his power his first year back, but his second year after surgery he clubbed a ton of HRs. Everything was back to normal. Nick didn't have any problems making contact, he just wasn't clearing fences. I expect the fences to clear at previous rates going forward.
Now, even if we split the difference, give Nick the benefit of the doubt and call it a .175 ISO for next season, that's still the bottom 3rd of 1B bats.
2008 ISO:
Konerko .212
LaRoche .211
Butler .191
Helton .164
Murphy .161
Cantu .154
Loney .118
Nick Johnson
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