Okay, any comp between pitchers and hitters is ... well, stupid. But, every time I peruse the Jackson stat summary, I get this "Adrian Beltre" ring in my ears. Beltre was a multi-year player who had the massive production spike at age 25.
I understand that "maybe" he put it altogether in 2009, and this is the beginning of a beautiful career. But, I look at his minor league line -- 4.0 BB/9 in his 500+ innings.
Doc notes that judging a kid like this is largely intuition. Well, my intuition isn't happy. I see a kid with a rock steady 1.1 HR/9 rate in the majors. Okay, his BB/9 and K/9 have fluctuated quite a bit, but even in his stellar 2009, his K-rate isn't anything to go gaga over. The big move forward is control. BUT ... the kid has never shown that kind of control before.
My sense is that this is a kid poised for regression, as I think his 2009 results likely exceeded his actual ability. The fact that TWO other clubs opted to give up on him doesn't add anything positive to the mix. Nor would the concept that Detroit is willing to give him up, either.
Yes, Jackson has 'stuff'. But Bonderman had stuff. Nate Robertson has stuff. Heck, Ian Snell has 'stuff'. Based on the general tone of most of what I've read, I see a lot of people putting 99% value on 2009 results, and largely ignoring everything else. Maybe he has figured it out, (like Unit did at age 29). Or maybe, he just had a career year of getting the close calls in Detroit. Anyone feel REALLY optimistic about him getting the close calls when he starts pitching for Seattle? Because the two things I see for 2009 are that a trait which he did NOT display in the minors suddenly blossomed ... and his BABIP allowed plunged from his career .306, to .278 in 2009.
My sense is that the walk rate was not real. That the BIP results weren't real, and that the 2009 results were likely a half run or so better than they should've been, (fangraphs shows his FIP at 4.28, just fyi).
Okay ... he's a nice young pitcher with some potential upside. I just don't get what all the excitement is about. If his final ERA for 2009 had been 4.28 instead of a 3.62 ... would there be any excitement about this kid at all?
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