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Doc,
You are completely right when it comes to the 2nd round and beyond. A couple $100K here and there can make a huge difference in who you can sign or not sign. However, I do not think the M's would ever in the past have spent an extra $500K+ on a 1st or sandwich pick. Further, I'll agree that none of us know what Howard will let Z do in the next draft when it comes to any sliding player asking for more than slot money.
As far as AB, I want the M's to offer ARB to AB so we may keep him. Obviously reading many others on many sites - USSM, LL, Brock & Salk, etc..., I really doubt that Boras will allow AB to even consider signing a 1 year deal since Boston and Philly are already kicking the the tires.