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1.  I agree with that 100% -- that Beltre's defense locks in a huge fraction of his value as a given.
2.  Perhaps you're right.  Maybe the -$4m was offered as a worst case.
2a.  Although it was still used as the basis of an argument that offering arb is the 'correct' decision.
3.  Point well taken that the Mariners don't like to do things that the commish's offer frowns on.
3a.  But remember that the Mariners don't have to do that, to get better players in the draft.
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You don't have to take a Matt Tuiasosopo in the 3rd round, possibly annoying the powers-that-be, in order to spread money around.  No need to take a 'splash' signability slide to leverage the draft with extra money.
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The difference between guys like Nicholas Franklin, Stephen Baron, Kyle Seager -- and alternatives to them -- are subtle.   In many cases in the top ten, $100,000 or less can be the difference in signing a superior alternative.
Many times, at the #113 overall, a small difference in money is the difference between getting the #80 guy on your board or the #102, and the Commish's office doesn't care about that.
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All that said, do we really think that Zduriencik & co. would pass on a signability slide if they thought they could sign him?
Good post Rain!