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I think I counted six completely distinct ways of looking at this problem, all of them intelligent and useful (as far as I can tell what's intelligent or not, LOL).
Lemme chime in with Bill James':
The knowledge of who will improve is vastly more important than the knowledge of who is good. Stats can tell you who is good, but they’re almost 100 percent useless when it comes to who will improve.
To me, Jackson's projection is as clean as it could possibly be for any 5th-year pitcher who hasn't run a flat line of performance. Yet, there are 5-6 ways of predicting him listed here, all interesting.
Am still confident in the article in this specific case, but the alternative ways of looking at the problem are very info-taining :- )