Add new comment

Well, raw POs liked Bay, (2nd in the majors).  Raw assists liked Bay, (led the majors).  Raw errors liked Bay (again - led the majors).
If you're going to count every ZR variant, I see no reason not to count POs and RF as different stats.  (Okay, I'm getting snarky here.  Sorry).
I'm not trying to argue that Bay is an elite defender.  I've stated that I think he's average, but could see with his speed, rating as slightly above, given the proper setting and motivation.  My point about *ALL* of the ZR-based stats is that they are all reliant on the initial decisions by the people judging the zones. 
I don't see how one could logically conclude that the smallest LF in all of baseball should produce the most outs of every LF in baseball.  We KNOW from years of data that the Monster creates doubles that would be outs in other parks.  Fenway, should - as a rule - produce fewer out opportunities for ANY LF.  Yet, UZR for 2009 projects Fenway to have produced more expected outs than any other stadium in baseball?!? 
Boston had a bad team defense in 2009.  So, yeah, I can see Bay benefitting from extra chances due to plays not made elsewhere.  So, no.  I don't think he's an elite fielder.  But, I checked Boston stats to see if I could find a Boston team with a similar BABIP allowed.  As luck would have it, the 2006 ane 2009 clubs both gave up .313 BABIPs to the opponent.  So, two teams, more or less identical DERs ... in the same home park.  How did their LFs compare?
The TEAM LF in 2006 -- 274 POs -- 1.81 RF/9. 
The TEAM LF in 2009 -- 365 POs -- 2.27 RF/9. 
It's not that I don't understand that the makeup of a staff can't have an effect on the number of chances a player will get.  I understand this.  What I don't believe, and 40+ years of watching baseball and perusing stats tells me, is that for a position that runs a pretty steady 2.0 ish RF, (2 outs per game), that 100 extra "routine" chances aren't just going to magically appear to skew the results for one guy.  It's the MAGNITUDE of the gap between the outs Bay actually recorded and what the system believes he should have gotten.  I don't believe the system, when the system says you have to set an RF record just to be considered average.  MAYBE, if your team is allowing 100 runs more than everyone else, I'd consider it.  But Boston was 3rd in fewest runs allowed, (yes, they had a good staff).  But, for a team that allowed 35 runs BELOW league average, I'm not buying that Bay and Ellsbury cost them 30 runs more than average.