Personally, I put zero, zilch, nada weight on individual defensive stats coming out of Boston's LF. Some historical perspective. Looking at only the range portion of UZR.
Manny:
2002 - (1.8)
2003 - +3.7
2004 - (0.8)
2005 - (19.8)
2006 - (20.6)
2007 - (21.0)
2008 - (5.7) - combined from Boston/Dodgers
2009 - (2.9)
According to UZR, between 2004 and 2005, Manny lost 20 runs of range, which he maintained right up until the instant he was traded, at which point, he got back 17 of those runs.
As a comparison, let's look at his RF/9 over the same span.
2002 - 1.7
2003 - 1.8
2004 - 1.7
2005 - 1.9
2006 - 1.6
2007 - 1.7
2008 - 1.8
2009 - 1.6
It just so happens, that 2005, the year Manny morphed into the worst fielder in baseball, he set his CAREER HIGH in actual putouts, (243). UZR gave him a 7.0 ARM rating that year, (he had 17 assists, so not shocking).
Jason Bay was a plus fielder until 2007, (by UZR), then plunged toward Manny-land, with -14.6 and -14.4 range ratings since arriving in Fenway. Note that while Manny was posting consistent 1.7ish numbers, Bay posted a 1.8 in his first partial season in Boston, but posted a 2.3 RF/9 in 2009, and made 310 putouts, (and added 15 assists). Somehow, UZR says Bay COST the team 0.7 runs with his arm.
How many LFs in all of baseball posted a 2.3 RF/9 in LF? Three -- Crawford, DeJesus and Bay. To believe that Bay is *HORRID* in LF, I have to believe that a RF VASTLY above that of any LF in baseball would be required for him to be AVERAGE. Bay records the 2nd most outs of any LF in baseball, (trailing only Crawford), and is pegged as a bumbling bafoon by UZR.
Sorry, but if UZR says Manny was an average LF in 2004 with 198 POs, a 1.7 RF/9 ... and then contends Bay, with 310 POs, a 2.3 RF/9 in 2009 cost them more than 14 runs due to his poor range ... well, then UZR is a complete moron. (Or is anyone who chooses to believe UZR in this case).
According to Fangraphs, Bay was "expected" to make 327 outs. That would make him (in theory), a perfectly average LF. That was the most outs made by ANY LF in all of baseball. I am supposed to believe that Boston has what ... an order of magnitude more chances for the LF than any other LF in all of baseball? With the GREEN MONSTER?!?!? In what Bizarro world does LF in Boston become the place to pad DEFENSIVE stats? You have to go back to 1986 with Jim Rice to find a LF who had more POs for Boston than Bay.
Manny, at age 38, improves his range runs by 18 by leaving Boston. I'm thinking Bay -- going to Seattle -- probably ups his range runs by about 60. (No, that's not hyperbole ... that's my opinion on how reliable UZR range factors happen to be).
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