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Great piece, Doc.
No question that Johnson had ALREADY gotten good before he left Seattle.  His final 5 seasons, when his walk rate plunged from the 5-7/game level down to the 3-4 per game level, he was CLEARLY a HoF to be guy.  Not a question at all.  The only question was health and longevity.  The '96 season obviously put the fear of injury risk at the forefront.  But, remember that Clemens was a guy who was also allowed to leave due to age/injury fears.  Not like Seattle has cornered the market on pitcher injury phobias.
That said, regardless of the situation, the choice to go all-in on *ANY* player ... be it Randy Johnson or Albert Pujols is one where the choice limits FUTURE options.  When you commit $20 million a season -- "for a long time" -- then you limit options for a long time.  Texas got nowhere while AROD was eating up 20-25% of their payroll.  And as good as Johnson was for Arizona, he didn't bring any titles to Houston or NY during his visits.
Of course, one could easily credit Johnson with almost single-handedly winning that one World Series over the Yankees.  He's got a career 3-0 record in the series, after all.  But, of course, he only reached the penultimate stage that one time, too.  His 0-5 record in NLDS starts demonstrates the cold reality of the post-season.  Being a Hall of Famer guarantees nothing in a short series.
That said, I would agree that making Felix a fixed piece for the next 10 years is about as safe a proposition as one could hope for.  No history of arm problems.  No perceived mechanical flaws to suggest he's going to break down at any moment.  And the club doesn't have body one on the offensive side to hint that spending the money on Felix is going to allow the next Pujols to escape after their 6 years of club control. 
If Seattle wants to do what Atlanta did, and be a contender for a decade, then building around Felix is the only move that DOES make sense, (given their current reality).  The Ichiro money will come off the books before anyone currently in the tubes on the offensive side becomes a Hall of Fame threat.  So, while I am naturally cautious on long-term commitments on any front ... Felix has the age, the arm, the performance to support a true long-term, (200 over 10) style gamble.  (I just hope the career-ending injury insurance covereage policy is solid).