Let me clarify. Lackey is an All-Star, or at least it wouldn't be a surprise for him to make the team in '10. However, over the next 5 years I see his performance being closer to Aaron Sele in '01 than Freddie Garcia '01. Assuming injuries aren't an issue, he peaks as a low-level All-Star and bottoms out at league average.
The reason I liked Harden and don't like Lackey is two fold. One is the money. If Harden misses the year to injury it doesn't impact your planning moving forward, not true with the contract Lackey gets. Two is the talent. Lackey has above average stuff, above average command, and above average pitchability. I think he will soon have league average stuff and league average command due to the wear and tear of 1500 innings in the bigs. This is why he's not a star in my book. He can't make up for the inevitable fall in stuff with improved command and pitchability.
By the way, I put my chances of being wrong with the Lackey projection at 50/50.
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