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If you're arguing 400-405 feet I'd say you'd be being reasonable. If you're trying to argue that hes going to average 380 feet in Safeco I'd say you're being rediculous. Ibanez gained about 2 feet per HR moving from Safeco to Philly. Branyan came to Safeco and had his highest average HR distance ever. There isn't a ton of evidence for players changing parks and DRASTICALLY changing their average HR distances.
I do think 400-405 feet would be a reasonable estimate for Seth Smith, only because its extremely difficult to maintain a rate of 415 (and there is a slight park adjustment). I DON'T think its reasonable to assume that ANY of those last 6 HRs wouldn't have gone out in Safeco (ALL of those are WELL out).
Tell me EXACTLY WHICH of Seth Smith's 2009 HRs you think WOULDN'T have been out in Safeco? The only HR that I see that is even remotely debatable is the one he hit in Oakland, and that a big stretch (a 396 foot blast to right-center). Smith HRs travel in the area in Safeco where the ball travels the most (right to right-center) and they are WAY out.
 I don't think shaving 80-100 OPs points off for the park adjustments is very realistic at all. I see an argument for Smith losing ONE HR, and I see it as a very weak argument.