Taking a rare stroll around the whole block, we see that somebody did pencil out the numbers and, in this case, nimbly defended *both* the $/WAR paradigm .... *and* the Cliff Lee trade. Ingenious :- )
The proposed math going thusly, in an Aumont-Gillies-JC Ramirez trade:
Lee's WAR value = $20-25m
Bonus for the fact that the M's only get him 1 year (??) = $5m (jemanji begs to differ)
Value of two presumed comp picks = $5-10m (no 0.8 multiplier for chance Lee gets injured)
Less salary = -$8m
.....
Aumont = $5m
Gillies = $3m
Ramirez = $5m
.....
Presto! a $20m win value profit. LOL.
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The sleight-of-hand here was to use a generalized figure for the "minor league commodity" Aumont, whereas we calculated Jones' value presuming average performance in the major leagues.
Presume Phillippe Aumont to do a Mark Lowe job in the bullpen for six years, and all of a sudden his net value goes to a minimum of $30m. As a starter, of course, it could go much higher.
Same is true of Juan Ramirez. Use hypothetical figures for a generic class-A+, org-top-10 starting pitcher and you're at $5m. But what if you assume that Ramirez tosses 600 mediocre innings in the big leagues? Wham, you are at $25m for him too.
.....
You could argue that $5m is the appropriate figure, that you want to use generic averages based on their ages and arcs. But then you should have done the same with Adam Jones, right?
Phillippe Aumont is not a generic minor leaguer. He's now a major leaguer, or very shortly will be, because his team is invested in him. And he's good.
He's a #11 overall pick with overwhelming stuff, hand-selected as "special" by the Jays/Phillies. He has a guaranteed spot in the majors now, and he'll be good. The over/under on his ROI is more like $25m than $5m.
......
If we're going to use $/WAR to compare trades of blue chippers for ML stars, let's set the rules ahead of time. (1) Presumed ML performance or (2) generic minor-league commodity value?
On Aumont, I for one am going to presume a Mark Lowe performance in the majors. As will the team acquiring him.
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Again, I think these ideas are quite important. They should probably be more visible. But we'll stay in the comments because our preference is for a low-key investigation of these points.
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