I'm confused, Doc. In previous writings you have noted that EVERY organization not only has decent prospects, but DOZENS of tradeable commodities.
Yet, even after finding a source which rates Chavez not just AMONG the top Blue Jay prospects, but rates him the absolute best -- you rate the trade as a straight-up Brandon/Brandon swap. From my perspective, you're saying Chavez has absolutely zero value as a prospect --- which seems to go completely counter to your previous position that every org has dozens of prospects with some value.
Okay, I understand that one might have different preferences for a "top" prospect versus only a "good" one. But, I find the notion that when the moon is full every organization has dozens of prospects with value to be complete at odds with the sentiment at the new moon that Toronto's entire prospect pool isn't worth looking at.
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That said -- here's a poser. How often does a player in A-ball hit more HRs than his age? Chavez at age 20 hit 21 HRs for Lansing. Okay, I get that he fans too much and doesn't walk enough. He's not MY kind of prospect, (Carp is). Then again, he fanned only 11 more times in 106 more ABs on his second pass, so there was some improvement. His walk rate is sad ... but his OBP isn't horrible, because he's getting plunked a lot. (I was trying to figure out how the kid was showing 60-70 patience numbers on such low walk totals. Getting plunked 13 times certainly helps the old OBP.)
It's the 190 ISO from a 20-year old that is attractive from a SABR view. That 190 ISO was his "baseline" ISO from rookie league. After his trainwreck of a season in 2008, he's right back to 190 again in 2009.
All in all, I like League a tad more than Morrow, and getting a roll-of-the-dice Ortiz in the mix is gravy. But, I'm fine with being in the minority anyway. The age/years/control issues between the two Brandon's are a plus for Toronto, so a little sweetener is in order. Though I truthfully see this as just a part of the original Lee deal, where your theorhetical exchange is likely right on target -- except that it was the final exchange to go ahead and close the part of the deal with the Phillies ASAP.
Only Jack's hairdresser knows for sure. :)
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