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If Bay really REEEEALLY wants to play for the Mariners...there is no telling what kind of break he might give us in year one.
You could see him going 4 years 56 million dollars, but with a structure like:
2010: 5 million dollar base salary
2011: 10 million dollar base salary and 5 million of a 10 million dollar signing bonus
2012: 15 million dollar base / 3 million bonus
2013: 16 million dollar base / 2 million bonus
Don't forget that this is not unheard of.  Richie Sexson did that very thing (essentially)...taking 7 million dollars from year one and having it paid on year 2 so that the Mariners could afford both Sexson and Beltre.  You could see Bay being like "I know you guys are up against it for payroll room in 2010...how can I help make this negotiation easier?"
THEN you could afford Bay and Branyan without blowing up the budget completely.

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