Add new comment

1

I know that I was a lot frostier about Jackson than most of the blog-o-sphere.  While I don't know why Z wasn't warmer on Edwin, I can explain why I was.
2009 - 1st half:  2.52-ERA; 121-IP; 35-BB; 97-K; 10-HR; 7.2-K/9; 2.77-K/BB
2009 - 2nd half: 5.07-ERA; 92.1-IP; 35-BB; 64-K; 17-HR; 6.2-K/9; 1.83-K/BB
In 2009, Jackson put together a fantastic 3 month run.  The rest of 2009, he reverted to pretty much the same control-challenged talent he had been the previous 5 years. 
I get that he's only 25.  I get that those eye-popping numbers from the first half are drool-inducing.  But, I see a kid who has exactly 3 months where he maintained a K/BB above 2.00.  His 1.1 HR/9 is rock steady - absolutely zero improvement there.  His K rate didn't improve, so much as it was a good year, (but not his best).  The only peripheral where Jackson really gained was walks.  But the gain was pretty much isolated to the 1st half. 
How do you tell if a 25-year-old kid had a career year vs. a breakout?  You wait and see.  The optimists see Jackson as a kid who finally "got it" and has arrived ... as a legit #2 starter.  I view him as the pitcher-equivalent of 2004 Beltre.  Yes, age is important.  But, Jackson has been learning against major leaguers for 7 seasons.  Sure, the first 4 years were limited engagements.  But, he's got 670 innings compared to Morrow's 200. 
It's not JUST age.  The more innings thrown w/o improving gradually lowers the odds of future improvement.  And the bulk of the "improvement" seen in 1st half of 2009 vanished overnight.
So, what did he DO during the first half that made him so good?  Well, he walked fewer hitters and struck out more.  "Something" was working.  But, he *ALSO* ran a .249 BABIP in the 1st half.  In the 2nd half, he ran a .312.  His career BABIP against is .306.  So, for 3 months, everything hit stuck in a glove.
The ultimate scope on Jackson mostly relies on whether one believes the 1st three months of 2009 are representative of what he'll bring in the future -- or whether the last three months are.  Age and player control (salary) issues count against him in a trade for Morrow.  As to what Jack saw ... can only guess.  Me?  I viewed Morrow and Jackson both as BOR projects that would only move to TOR types if/when they could develop consistency. 

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.