HQ on Jose Lopez - 30 HR, .300 AVG next?
=== Caveats & Quid Pro Quo's Dept. ===
You can order your Forecaster here. No embedded ad links at SSI, but am sure that Shandler wouldn't mind a bit of linkage in return for our moshing off his work.
Not that they've gotten on us about it, but am guessing that we'll probably have to start paraphrasing pretty quick here. General ideas are public domain; I'm a little murkier on infringement issues when you snip 50 words out of a writer's column with link, credit and endorsement. ;- ) Thoughts?
Saunders, League, and Lopez, that is three guys with rosy BaseballHQ outlooks. It's not that HQ doesn't have pessimistic outlooks on M's players; it's that we're cherrypicking fun players to talk about right now. Info-tainment is da name of da game.
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=== HQ Riff ===
Turned 2008's breakout into a stepping stone, and still may not have peaked. xBA and H% ping-pong say that he can recapture 2008 AVG. Improved FB & PX and strong 2H say that power is legit. Add it up, and .... UP: 300, 30 HR
Bid: $21
Position scarcity chart: first tier, 9 other second basemen, aligned with Uggla, Zobrist, Cano, Kinsler
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=== SSI Mixing Board ===
By "breakout" in 2008, Ron is referring to Lopez' AVG & HR going from .260 and 10 up to .300 and nearly 20. In 5x5 roto that's a valuable second baseman.
In terms of real baseball, Lopez' OPS+ also rose from 71 to 103 in 2008, and his RC/27 from 3.2 to 4.7, so you can see why Ron calls 2008 a "Eureka" year for JLo.
Then he sees 2009 as continuing the momentum, and 2010 with latent energy yet.
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By H% ping-pong ... the last four years, Lopez' BABIP has gone 31%, 27%, 31%, 27%. Lopez hit .272 last year despite an unlucky .270 BABIP. Shandler interprets this to mean that Lopez is going to jell as a legit .300 hitter. (The language is circumspect because roto champs are into 80%-value bidding.)
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Power is legit ...
Lopez' PX was 123 in the second half, elite for middle infielders, Safeco or no Safeco. Lopez' power was elite MI while playing in Safeco.
Lopez hit 8 homers in the first half and 17 (!) in the second half, only 79 games. Take Lopez second half, times two, and you have a 35-homer player. Hitting .300.
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Flyball trends -- across a series of years -- are what Shandler watches most in predicting HR breakouts. This is his Jamesian influence: the idea is to track K/BB, or BB, or FB, or BB%, across 3-5 years. When you see a smooth growth pattern somewhere, you have valuable information.
Lopez' flyball rate has been trending up; he used to be a very extreme groundball hitter, but now is even-steven, 1:1 fly balls and ground balls.
Ergo, you've got a classic profile for somebody who is going to start reliably parking 25-35 home runs per season.
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=== SSI Mosh ===
Shandler doesn't have the time to go look up Lopez' scatterchart -- scads of HR's just barely over the fence at Safeco.
And that's good: he's analyzing in a vacuum, not influenced by the scary-looking scatterchart. Lopez is, after all, reliably performing these HR feats in Safeco.
It's obvious to me that Lopez is starting to look for his pitch and deliberately swat it out of the park. This is a light bulb that is difficult for many to turn on -- that many young GB hitters will later make the decision to hit for the fence.
Granted, Lopez' natural 30-35 homer peak might get edited to 20-25 inside Safeco. Then again, maybe not. You've got that 17 homers in the second half.
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I like Ron's take, that Lopez is going to jell as a certified .300 hitter. His bat is so unbelievably fast, and his weight transfer so compact, that in his prime he's going to be almost impossible to strike out.
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=== RC/27 vs 5x5 ===
Lopez doesn't walk, but then neither do many Latin hitters. Plate discipline is a wonderful thing -- but no absolutes need apply. Miguel Tejada and Kirby Puckett could hit a mortal ton.
Lopez' RC/27 was 5.1 in the second half last year, and RC/27 unduly penalizes players who don't walk. Granted that Lopez is going to be worth more in 5x5 than per EqA or wOBA. The same thing was true with Miguel Tejada.
Miguel Tejada, in his prime, would hit .300/.340/.525, with 5.5 runs per game, 32 homers and 120 RBI. Jose Lopez did this in the second half last year. He's now "Age 26 With Experience" and making a whopping $2.75m next year.
Lopez isn't a great fit for the park, but then neither was Miguel Tejada a great fit for Oakland's park. You've come this far with Lopez. Now you get his age-26 and age-27 seasons. We agree with HQ, that they're going to be .300-27-110 seasons.
2010 should be the year, when Lopez posts Miguel Tejada production, if he is going to do it.
Cheers,
Dr D