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One of the tools in my own fantasy tookit was the realization early on that it was MUCH better odds betting on players who had ALREADY shown ability to regain it (after a down year or two), then to expect to make the correct bet on the one prospect (out of the 30 getting buzz) that might have a decent season.
Broken guys aren't "always" fixed -- but they get fixed a WHOLE lot more regularly than hot prospects pan out immediatley.