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One of the tricks I used to employ to great benefit when I was playing Fantasy leagues was to (largely) ignore the immediately previous year, and take a strong look at who was strong TWO years ago.  The dynamic that this created was playing off the reality that many, many fantasy players get a little "too" hyped on the most immediate production -- be it good, or bad.
When Beltre had his monster explosion in 2004, even though scads of people were skeptical, and much was stated about a vast array of reasons to NOT expect a follow-up, in the end, he got drafted way too high in 2005.  SOMEBODY was going to take that gamble.  And experienced players, KNOWING that "somebody" would take that gamble, would often tweak their own draft charts upward.
The contrary reality was the career bad year.  The "fear" that it wasn't just a bad year, but a career crashing end was already in the back of everyone's mind.  The "fear of a Sexsonesque swan dive into early retirement would scare people away from the formerly good draft picks. 
I became quite adept at plucking guys like Lowell in later rounds that nobody wanted to "gamble" on.  Five good years, one bad year -- suddenly the guy isn't just not a "sure thing", he drops all the way to "gamble". 
Many considered Gutz a "gamble", because of his .691 OPS from 2008.  But, the same guy posted a .790 in 2007.  Z didn't have to "guess" at his upside -- he's ALREADY SEEN his upside.  Chavez posted a .779 OPS in 2006.  Obviously, not every player repeats whatever his career year happened to be.  Some guys get "figured out" and never adjust.
Others struggle for all kinds of reasons, (apathy ... injury ... family issues).  I'm certain the selection of Kotchman was not based "solely" on his .840 OPS at age 24.  But, I'm certain it played a part in the decision.  We aren't talking a phantom season where the numbers are pushed by a one-in-a-lifetime .340 batting average.  That .840 OPS came off a .296 BA, (career high - yes -- but he's hit in the .280s a couple of stops since).
I'd argue that Z is "looking" for under-30 guys who have ALREADY posted plus numbers at some point, but for whatever reason have lost their jobs, (or could never win one).  Gutz, Langerhans, and now Kotchman.  As noted elsewhere - this "type" of player is cheap ... and also very discardable.  The 1-year flyer types routinely end up being the "surprise" piece that blossoms and provides the extra production that was "missing".  Guys like Gabe Gross or David Dellucci get snagged with impact of a wet sponge on the fans -- right up until they start posting .800 OPS figures for AAA money.