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glmuskie's picture

Being a Vegas oddsmaker to me seems like one of the easiest jobs in the world.  Einsteins, savants, geniuses...  they most certainly are not.
Firstly.  The outcomes of sporting events are highly predictable.  It's pretty apparent which is the better team, most of the time.  If Tiger Woods enters a golf event, who becomes the favorite?  If the Colts play the Lions, who's the favorite?  Will it be close?  It's pretty easy to determine a likely outcome from a given contest.
Secondly.  The oddsmakers are not setting the odds on the outcome, so much as setting the odds on what the outcome is generally expected to be by the majority of the population.  You want to know where the money will be going.  This is pretty easy to get a guage on, just from watching the media.
Thirdly, what happens when an oddsmaker is off?  The line moves.  It's a self-correcting system. 
I'd guess you can take any reasonably intelligent, analytical sports fan, and they could be a pretty successful oddsmaker.

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