How much for Sheets?
Rumors this week have the M's as one of three or four finalists for Sheets. Seismo's out of Fort Brougham are that they're, um, trying to get the $$ worked out.
Which is, of course, one reason that the M's play the budget cards so close to the vest: so that, when sitting at the green felt with agents, they can represent their hand as only bearing a red chip or two.
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Q. How much IS Sheets worth for 2010?
A. If it's 5x5 roto and you have all roster slots filled but one, and you have $4 left in your budget, he's worth $4.
If you have one slot left on your roster, and Sheets is the best player available, and you have $201 left in your budget, he's worth $201.
...........
We 'net rats persist in analyzing the finances in a vacuum, without considering context. If it's a national fantasy game, one of those where you get $50M per weekend to field an NFL team, and you freely re-pick half your team each week, then sure. It's as simple as bang-for-the-buck on each player, in a vacuum. But! We can't analyze MLB rosters that way. It's too simplistic.
.............
Now suppose you're playing $260 roto against 11 competitors ... and there's a special rule. My team can have an extra $10 any time it wants.
Whhhaaaaaat?!? How many times?
As many times as I want. If I want to pull the bonus $10 twenty times, I can do that. (Like the Mariners can simply raise their payroll if they so choose.)
OK, now how much is Ben Sheets worth? If you can just change your $260 budget to $290 if you feel like it, and Oakland and LA can't?
You see the problem?
..........
That's why all y'all hope that the M's get Sheets for $6m but pass on him for $8m. I just hope they sign him, period. The above, is why.
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Q. How much extra could the Mariners pull, if they wanted?
A. Who knows. There was just an ESPN spot saying that the Phillies were at $138M, or something, for 15 players. Accurate or not, the M's could do that too.
So you're a fan of my BABVA roto team, and I can pull an extra $10 or $100 over my $260 any time I want.
NOW do you hope I buy Sheets?
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Q. What's he worth, in $260 roto?
A. Shandler has him worth $10, based on a lackluster performance in 115 innings.
Sheets represents (in simplified terms) a coin flip: useless, or the Cy Young winner.
What's that worth to your roto team? Well, if the M's take Sheets and he has the 10k, 1bb season -- then in a tough league, whichever team drafted Sheets 8th round wins the pennant, simple as that, pretty much.
What's it worth? 50-50 (or 40-60, or 30-70) chance to simply call the league off and you get the $3,000 as champ?
That's why roto owners draft Sheets high (or pay a lot for him on draft day). You can afford the $10 or the 8th-round-pick hit, in view of the astronomical payoff.
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Q. So you're rooting for the M's to land him?
A. Of course, as with Harden or Bedard. Whichever one of those guys has the big year, 40% (y'know) of the teams drafting him will win their roto leagues.
Don't underestimate the value of a guy like that, if he hits the jackpot.
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Q. Is your sense that he will pan out?
A. The real teams' interest in him, post-workout, is awfully lame.
Sheets, when right, is a virtual Pedro Martinez. Three gamebreaker pitches, all thrown with surgical precision. Which is why the career K/BB leaderboard looks like this.
In the cold, wet air of January, he looks like $8m with incentives. But if he's throwing well in April, he'll be more fun than Felix or Lee. He'll be worth $1m per start.
The A's would be spending their measly payroll on him from weakness, as a desperate gamble to save their season. The M's would be buying Sheets from strength, as a 1-in-3 dice roll to take over the league.
Cheers,
Dr D