POTD Eric Byrnes
Q. What does HQ have to say on Byrnes at 34?
A. Thusly:
- 300 PA
- 10 SB, .250/.300/.425 (yowwch)
- Can still run, as indicated by high SB/opp and SB%
- Terrible OBP zaps SB value anyway
- Static PX (power) and xAVG trends say no rebound in 2010
With a $9 bid and 4.4 runs per game projection.
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Q. Do you agree with that?
A. Actually on this one I'd have to differ with the Bearded Prophet.
I don't buy the argument that Byrnes' career decline is evidenced by a limp-n-lifeless PX trend, simply because in his career 2007 All-Star season, his PX was the same as in 2008 and 2009.
It's a lonnnnng argument, but simply put, I don't see an age decline in Byrnes' component-skills profile ... nothing that goes beyond simple injury, anyhow.
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Q. What would a bounceback year from Byrnes look like in fulltime play?
A. Probably would look like his years with the A's, before the funny training, if in fact that's what caused the 2006-07 glory ... The A's years being .270 with 30 doubles, 20 homers, 15-20 SB's, and four uniforms a game.
A 100-110 OPS+ with good defense in LF and decent cover defense in CF as a backup.
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Q. At 34, what are the chances of that?
A. 50-50 in case A, or 0% in case B.
Byrnes' recent injury was an HBP broken hand, which is good news. It means the rest of his body is tanned, rested and ready to go. As a speed player, 34 isn't necessarily a death sentence for Byrnes...
On the other hand, if his 2006-07 burst was caused by funny training methods, those hammies are going to keep him off the field for the rest of his life. Classic syndrome there.
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Q. Can he platoon?
A. Eric Byrnes has never done a thing in his life but SLG .500 against LHP's, and that includes 2008 and 2009.
Off LHP's, Byrnes can and will hit like Jose Lopez or Michael Cuddyer, .300/.350/.500. Byrnes is a 3-position backup outfielder.
That's pretty cool. People asked earlier about a 1B/DH bench guy who hits 300/350/500 against lefties -- that's lame. But to get the same thing from your backup CF, now I'm down with that.
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Q. Z says he's here to compete for a job.
A. Which is probably understating it.
If Byrnes is limping, he's still that 3-position backup CF who smacks lefties around. But the upside scenario is that he heals up and gets back to, not 2006-07, but at least to his salad days in Oakland.
It's nice to see the M's investing their ST at-bats on a guy who has a quality chance to surprise people. There have been years when those AB's would have gone to a well-liked player with no chance at all.
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Q. Byrnes compared to Saunders?
A. Would much rather have a talented developmental player than an MLB(TM) retread any time; it's more fluid and dynamic.
But if Saunders needs AB's and is going to be in Tacoma anyway, fine. I guess that by "competing for a job" Zduriencik meant, if Saunders doesn't hit .370 in March, then a healthy Byrnes is in the DH/OF rotation.
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Q. Byrnes compared to Langerhans?
A. As you know, I view Langerhans as a slider-speed bat who OPS'ed 86 both in 2009 and for his career.
Byrnes >> Langerhans for me.
Byrnes isn't the end of the world, but as a 200-AB guy hitting lefties and backing up all the OF spots, that's a championship-level end of the bench.
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Q. Anything else?
A. Hey, here's something weird. Eric Byrnes can steal bases off lefthand pitchers. He's 28-and-6 for his career. I'll bet you that's best among active players.
And he's 128-and-23 stealing bases all time. The dude comes to play.
Cheers,
Dr D