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=== Ichiro's Future ===

How long will Ichiro be able to play in this second stage of his career, the 320/380/360 stage?  

He seriously wants to play until he's 50.  I'll bet he can cut down his swing and swat the ball through the hole until he is 45. 

Rickey had pretty good years at ages 42 and 43.  But Rickey was right handed, and nowhere near the HIT guy that Ichiro is.  Ichiro has five completely different swings, and once his reflexes go, he'll have to limit himself to two or three of them, the least-ambitious ones.

I wonder just what kind of a batting average Ichiro could post, if he wanted to hit 0-4 home runs, slap the ball hard on the ground for a 65% grounder rate, and bunt a lot.  I bet you'll see Ichiro hit .368 when he's 41, or something.

........

Obviously Ichiro is a workout freak.  When you're guessing "number of peak years" for him, you bet the Over.   Like Jamie Moyer before him, Ichiro is a man who will extend his career through sheer discipline, health, and work ethic.

I don't think it is logical to project Ichiro to even begin his decline ANYwhere before age 38.  It may be later than that.

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=== Work Environment ===

The real change for Ichiro worked like this:

• Age 34:  310/360/385, did not enjoy coming to work
• Age 35:  350/380/465, did indeed enjoy coming to work

At age 36, Ichiro is going to enjoy coming to work again.  I wouldn't bet anything that I was afraid to lose, that Ichiro wouldn't replicate 2009 inch-for-inch. 

In fact, as Dr. Naka notes, there may even be room for upside, since his EYE of 0.45 was a bit low for him, as were his 26 SB's.  True, Ichiro's BABIP was a few ticks higher than his usual .360. But what we Americans forget is that Ichiro was quite sick for a good part of the early 2009 season.

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=== Dr's Prognosis ===

Ichiro's EYE -- actually his BB% -- dropped a bit from 7% to 5% as his power went way up, from .385 SLG to .465 SLG.  Ichiro's enthusiasm showed up in the way he wound up the spring to attack pitches with gusto.

 Objectively speaking, the usual indicators (age, James Index etc) all but guarantee a decline for 2009.

But in this case, the slide rules and spreadsheets are going to miss the factors that actually matter in Ichiro's case: 

• He's incredibly fit
• He's happy again
• He's a HOF'er with a HOFer's age-arc

Figure Ichiro to repeat 2009.  .350 with 30 doubles, 10 homers, and an inner-circle HOFer's leadoff game.

That is, unless this is a year for one of those runs at .400.

Cheers,

Dr D