Y'know -- in scanning the career numbers for these three, I see an eerie similar pattern. Each has managed at least one AMERICAN LEAGUE .800 OPS season, (Kotch and Garko both broke .840, while Byrnes peaked at .810.
All three have also have MASSIVE dips in performance along the way - including limited exposure outings below .650. Oddly, all three have career totals that are higher when playing in the AL?!? All three have shown a staggering ability to LOSE their job.
It's like three rolls of the dice at a .280/.350/.450 bat. Clearly, Garko has the best resume, but he's two years older than Kotchman, (but the two have nearly identical PAs). Byrnes is the old man of the bunch. I'm thinking Kotch is the front-runner for PT, not because of his salary, but because he's a lefty bat for Safeco.
The aggregate 1B bat in 2009 was .848. How significant IS a downgrade from .850 to .810, (if .810 is what you get out of the 1B mish-mosh)? That's a 5% dip in performance in 9% of PAs? Maybe you only get .770 from the mix -- a fulll 80 point (10%) decline. How many runs does that REALLY cost?
Frankly, Figgins posting a .750 at 3B would MORE than off-set the dip from Branyan. (Third totaled a combined .643). So, Figgins/mish-mosh by itself off-sets Beltre/Branyan. That's BEFORE you even look at the .597 from short -- or the .609 in LF.
So, I will continue beating my -- it ain't the BIG bat that is critical -- it's avoiding the multiple mini-bats ... the 3 (or more) 60-something OPS+ guys -- who shorten games and steal PAs from guys like Ichiro.
Year one: Fix the defense. Year two: Fix the OBP. Year three? That's when you can look at the power shortage ... so long as you haven't AIGed your payroll already.
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