Add new comment

But I'll present a (pseudo) counter-argument to the leveraged value of a great-but-injured player vs. a fair/good-but-built-Ford-Tough guy, as it relates to pitchers in specific, but also position players in general.
For a team like, say, the turn of the century Texas Rangers, a Bedard vs. Washburn discussion is different than it is for the 2010 Mariners.  Those Rangers teams were loaded with offense, pretty poor at defense in general, and had like zero dependable pitching.  For those teams, they knew they were going to score plenty on a night-in, night-out basis.  They also knew that plenty of times, they'd watch a trainwreck on the mound which would overcome their potent offense's abilities.
For those teams, a Jarrod Washburn type of pitcher might actually be more valuable than an Erik Bedard type gamble.  With Washburn/Sele, you knew what you were going to get, and at least from the on-field perspective it helps to have confidence in your team-mates.  For them, if they had the choice of five Jarrods out there, or five Bedards, they'd have to go with the Burn every time.  Their team didn't *need* 5 WAR pitching in the rotation.  They *needed* a lock-down bullpen and a rotation that wouldn't let the margin get too wide.
The other factor to consider, obviously, is depth.  This is sort of addressed in the previous example, but for the Mariners to back up Felix/Lee/Bedard with RRS/Snell/Fister/Vargas/whoever else, it allows them to play the Stars & Scrubs game a little more effectively since M's scrubs have the potential to throw a Washburn/Sele-esque 4.6 ERA over a season.  That possibility essentially didn't exist for the 2000's Texas Rangers teams.  Their guys would come in and go 4-10 with a 6.80 ERA over half a year with almost zero pleasant surprises from the farm.
If you've got a 115 OPS+ for the team, and by signing five Washburn/Sele/Doug Davis types you can solidify your team ERA+ at league average, you're going to make a case for the playoffs.  Bedard type gambles are not a good proposition for teams that have no pitching depth, or teams that don't *need* their rotation to be a devastating weapon in order to survive.  Michael Young/A-ROD/Pudge/Juan Gonzales/whatever other juggernauts were on those offenses pretty much make up the 'core' of your franchise.  You let them do the heavy lifting and you just get them enough pitching to keep it close early.