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... as we know, the M's two luck factors Pythag (+) and runs/OPS (-) essentially canceled last year, and I'm not sure either one was exclusively due to random fluctuation...
My hero Griff had a saaaaaaad BABIP last year, but am not sure that either was exclusively due to random fluctuation.
A player gets into a slump, he's taking (relatively) defensive swings -- at the very least, dialing back his ambitions a little -- and that will affect what saberdudes consider 100%-luck metrics.
Couldn't agree more.