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Carlos Pena is 32 this year as a low-batting-average, high-power hitter.
Everyone on his similar batter profile:
Dick Stuart - crashed hard at age 32, was done at 33.
Glenn Davis - fell off a cliff at age 30
Tony Clark - terrible age 30 on
Jim Gentile - again, steep falloff at 31, done at 32
Gorman Thomas - useless after age 31
Don Mincher - okay through age 33, then out of baseball after age 34
Jay Buhner - Maintained pretty well through age 35, though his games played were severely shortened after age 32
Cecil Fielder - done as a useful player after age 32
Norm Cash - maintained well into his late 30s
Andre Thornton - played well until age 34
The comp he gets here:
Richie Sexson, blew up at age 32.
Russ Branyan, threw his back out at age 33.
Pena is not a type that ages well. Maybe he can be the exception, as Norm Cash was, but everybody else was either done or running half seasons within 2 years of where Pena is. Norm Cash also had a lot better contact skills than Pena has had.
Can Pena fill a need for us for 2 years? Sure. In no universe do I extend him past 2 seasons from now (which is a problem, since his contract runs out this year and he's not gonna sign a 1-year deal). Maybe that's fine, and Poythress or Raben or Carp or whoever will be destroying the minors and ready to take over then.
A-Gon can fill a need for the next 6 seasons.
What's that 4-5 years of "security" worth to you? Is it worth the extra 4-5 prospects? I'd want to get him extended now, so that I can have those 6 seasons, but assuming we could lock him up would you pay the extra guys to make that happen?
Pena is like Branyan. I have no problems getting him in here on the cheap as a short-term fix to our power problem, but we'd better have a plan B for when he falls off a cliff. If we're just talking about the next year, then Gonzalez is still better than Pena, but there's a good argument for Pena + 4-5 prospects being better than Gonzalez by himself - especially if we can turn those 4-5 prospects into other (better) players than what we currently have. For 1-2 years only I definitely get the Pena argument (again, he's not under contract after 2010).
But right now we don't have a single batter on our team that I would call a cornerstone for the next 5 years. Gutierrez might be a cornerstone glove, but not a cornerstone bat IMO. We're all hoping Ackley is one, but he's not here yet - and Alex Gordon should be a decent example of a can't-miss bat that still hasn't hit yet.
Pena's not a cornerstone, he's a 1-2 year solution, IMO. If that's what we can do, then do it. It's way better than nothin, and the guy can still club. I'd just like the 28 year old .900+ OPS hitter instead of the 32 year old one if it's workable - and if we can sign him long-term.
~G