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Reasonable enough, though I have those two a little closer.
Pena's '09 was actually superior to his '08. '09 looks inferior only due to the UZR swing and a slightly unlucky BABIP.
I expect '10 to be in between those two seasons, Safeco won't hurt him so he'd gain a bit in addition to the value he bring in GDP. He has an outside shot at '07.
In general Pena is underrated defensively and Gonzalez is overrated. Dewan and PMR have Pena as a +5-10 run 1B over the past few years. I haven't seen anybody rate Gonzalez as a GG type despite his reputation. Hes generally rated around 0-5 runs.
I have the over/under at around 4-4.5 WAR in 135 games played for Pena in Safeco.
I see Gonzalez scaling back a bit in Safeco and due to league switch (though he maintains some of his power and BB gains). .280/.380/.510. 4.5-5 WAR in 160 games played.
Most of Gonzalez's gains in BB rate last year were due pitcher's pitching around him and IBBs (45.2% Zone). That figures to go down once he moves away from the Padres, though he maintains some of those gains as well as the power.
It comes down to who makes more sense for the cost. Pena on a salary dump or Gonzalez for your farm system? I don't see these guys seperated by 5-10 runs and thats only due to Pena's tendency to miss 25 games a season.