Pena was at 2.7 last year, 3.7 the year before ... he didn't get much of a penalty for D, and his skills (HR, RBI) are repeatable, so figure 3.0 to 3.5 wins. But I will grant you it's a "hard" 30-35 runs, runs that decide a division.
Granted also that Pena gets these in 135 games, leaving contribution for his substitute.
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Gonzalez was at 6.4, getting credit for only 4 runs as a fielder... His arc is up at ages 27-28. His BB are skyrocketing. He just got better. I'm not using his pre-peak seasons to project his ages 27-28...
I'm banking 5-6 wins for Gonzalez, Petco or Safeco, and 6-7 are the upside. WAR is very friendly to guys with .400 OBP's.
The 90th percentile is for him to hit like he did 2H 2009, have UZR give him credit for 10 runs defensively, and he's at 8 wins, like Mauer was last year.
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3 - 3.5 wins, plus sub, that's a nice total for a 40-homer man. 3 to 3.5 probably understates Pena's value -IF- his K's aren't going to sabotage him going forward.
:waits to see where this is going:
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