I don't know that it's old school batting-average mentality as much as it is old-AND-new-school bell curve assessments. An 8th rounder doesn't have "pedigree" so he's gonna have to perform - there's no real bonus to justify and no scout's name on the line. So the judgment is that he's gonna take a while to adjust to the pros if he can cut it at all, and how much adjustment time are you willing to put up with to get those doubles and his OBP potential to work for you?
If it's the Pirates, they have plenty of time - they haven't sniffed .500 in forever, so an .810 OPS bat that's a little old for level can crack that organization's roster and get playing time to prove himself - or fail.
The Astros? In 2004 Brooks Conrad put up a nice line in AA (that .845 OPS you spoke of at 24) but the Astros had just fired their manager midseason and were on the hottest tear in Baseball to end the season trying to make the playoffs. He wasn't getting a callup.
2005 - The Astros just had a fabulous run to end '04 and are now in a season-long pennant race with HOFer Craig Biggio at 2B and 144 OPS+ Morgan Ensberg at 3B - Conrad's not getting promoted. They went to the World Series, btw - this was not an organizational oversight. Their utility ABs were pretty bad, though, so maybe he deserved a shot in 2006 to fill that hole.
2006 - Defending NL champs aren't concerned with looking for diamonds in the rough or underappreciated talent in the MIF (except maybe at SS, which Conrad doesn't play). Still running dying HOFer Biggio and 120 OPS+ Ensberg out there, and swapped their crappy 2005 utility guy ABs with 96 OPS+ Burke and 107 OPS+ Aubrey Huff. That covers 2B and 3B again - no room.
2007 - Chris Burke is terrible this year and Huff is gone. Bruntlett is still brutal at SS offensively, but Conrad still can't play that. Mark Loretta is the IF everything guy, though, logging 460 ABs for an 88 OPS+ playing a bunch of shortstop (finally!) and some 2B and 3B as well. He covers the position Conrad can't and is "proven."
Could they have run Conrad as a benchie? Sure, it's possible. Instead they traded for Huff in 2006 and re-signed Loretta in '07 - with whom they were familiar from his time with the team in '02 - to fill the holes in what was viewed as a contender.
I don't know that I can say the Astros were wrong to do what they did. I kinda feel like the moral of the story with Brooks Conrad is "don't be a AAAA player with moderate potential in a system for a contending team." Because you will get overlooked. Not playing a position currently occupied by a HOF player who's spent his whole career with the team is another good idea. Trapped behind Cal Ripken or Derek Jeter? Find a different position, or a different team.
It was the wrong place and the wrong time to be Brooks Conrad, that's all. If he'd been Chase Utley (1st round draftpick, jumped from A+ to AAA and skipped AA entirely, then destroyed AAA a year later), they would have found a place for him. Conrad just didn't offer enough reward in their eyes to merit the roster spot.
Wrong team, wrong time. Sometimes, IMO, it's as simple as that.
~G
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