Add new comment

The upside of Kotchman that Jack is trying to get is David Segui - not a lot of power, but terrific glove, decent ability to walk, dead-even batting eye, who grew into better power (.150 ISO) in his late 20s and was able to keep his BA high. With Segui getting popped for PEDs though, it throws his profile into question (yes, I know he said they were medically necessary).
Segui was pretty bad offensively in his first 1500 ABs, much as Kotchman has been (though Casey's whipsawed from "adequate" to "pathetic" while Segui was just bad until 28, then got to be a decent 1B as a total package).
Can Casey do that? I don't have any faith in it. I'm gonna use pitcher type to illustrate my problem with Kotchman.
Segui never struggled against power pitchers and feasted on finesse pitchers the way that Casey consistently has (.683 OPS vs power, .726 vs. average, .868 vs finesse). His best year in the bigs (with a 119 OPS+ for the year)? He hit .794 vs power pitching with a .362 BABIP and an ISO of .097. He had a hundred lucky ABs where singles fell in. He can't hit anybody with a plus FB.
The first few years of his career, Segui's spike was actually against average pitching, not finesse. For his career, he hit all types fairly evenly. Having a slow bat wasn't his issue, while i think it is with Casey. I don't have hopes for Casey to crush hard pitching. He hangs on in the league by hitting #5 pitchers and long-relief guys.
Carlos Pena has more trouble with power than finesse pitching too, but the majority of that is average-based. He still has the same amount of power no matter the quality of pitcher he's facing - he just turns singles into outs against the fireballers.
I guess in that way Kotchman and Pena ARE similar: Kotchman has an ISO of .135 vs power, .137 vs average, and .155 vs finesse. It's his average that moves a HUNDRED points when facing finesse vs. power. If Kotchman had Pena's .230/.255/.270 ISO figures I would have far fewer concerns about his weaknesses, but Casey has never and will never display power like that. Pena was running .200 ISOs far before this point, and before his "breakout."
Losing a hundred + points of power is the difference between a useful 1B and a harmful one. I think Kotchman is gonna cost us more runs with his bat than he can make up with his glove - so I REALLY hope they see something in his swing or approach that they can tweak to either get him some power or improve his BA against harder throwers.
Garko, FWIW, has .780ish numbers against the Power and Average categories, and high .880s vs finesse. He can hold his own in ways Kotchman can't. He's more likely to get a breakout with the bat than Kotchman, IMO.
I just can't figure out why, aside from a shift in the way he approaches his hitting, we would expect more from Kotchman than he's already given.
I can't see him being the answer at 1B.
~G