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I agree mostly with what you say here but I choose to look at things a bit differently, Sandy. Where I draw the line in the sand with the Saber community is when it is assumed that a % of effectiveness vs. luck can be put on a pitcher. I've read up a bit on DIPS theory and can respect it for what it is but there is a key element that gets lost in translation between the study and how its interpreted. Really, at its heart (correct me if I'm wrong) based upon season to season averages, it has been determined that pitchers don't control the results of balls in play. I even disagree with that to some extent but that's a different point. How that information seems to have been translated from what I read from analysts now is that they don't have any control over balls in play. IMO, the key word that is forgotten is RESULT, or whether or not that ball goes into a glove. However, given that there are many variables to that result, by far the pitcher controls the most inputs into the direction and velocity of a batted ball.
This applies to all varieties of batted balls. I agree that most hr's for example are deemed mistakes by the pitcher and that all pitchers make mistakes in a game. Some make more than others and some are penalized more often than others which IMO boils down to stuff as much as anything.