Add new comment

In April of '09 Kelley became a perceived wunderkind for the bullpen. Then, he got hurt. When he returned, his Ks and walks were still solid, but his return brought a bunch of dingers that weren't there in early. This Spring, a couple of quick jacks is enough (for me) to raise the question -- "does Kelley have a gopher problem?"
This is perhaps the biggest issue with young pitchers - yet tends to be the one that gets the least screen time. EVERY one of the BOR guys last year that didn't work out had gopheritis. The guy that defied his eye ratio numbers, (Snell), didn't.
Mind you - I'm not making a prediction here. I'm just saying -- Kelley doesn't have remotely the MLB track record to be certain of anything. Yes, he might have what it takes to be an SP. He also might not have what it takes to stick in the pen -- IF his late '09 gopher problems are more than a transient blip.
IMO, the perception of how great Kelley *IS* (versus how good he "might" be) is likely overstated. Felix had oodles of talent from day one, but it's taken him a few YEARS to fully harness that talent. What was his problem a couple years ago? Homers. The analysis was that he was over-challenging. REGARDLESS of the "why", the end result is that Felix tweaked his game, and the HR problem vanished, and he's a CY arm.
Well -- Felix is not the only guy capable of correcting a HR problem. Plenty of pitchers have done it in the past. And plenty of uber-talented pitchers have also FAILED to do so even years later.
========
As for 2010? I think moving Kelley at this point would be galactically stupid, if you have any actual desire to make the playoffs during 2010. The double hit of moving a bullpen guy into the rotation - where he will not be ALLOWED to pitch deep - (or throw 180 innings) -- is going to put major pressure on a bullpen that wasn't that great in 2009 -- and that is topped by a pair of guys with ONE good season each.
I really hope Aardsma and League are for real. But this is not a case where either one is a "sure thing". Both are 1-year wonders at the moment. Both could succeed. Both could fail. One thing is certain. The offense is not good enough to recover from a pourous bullpen, (should it develop).
Then again - the track record thus far for Z has been far better with hitter judgement than pitcher judgement. Vargas, Olson, French are Z's choices ... and Aardsma.
Personally, I think Vargas has a decent shot at "developing" into a decent BOR SP. It's all about the HRs.