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Honestly, I think it kind of silly to compare Kotchman to speedy lead-off hitters. If you're comparing Kotchman's hitting to other 1Bs - then it is only fair to compare his base-running to other 1Bs. Comp him to Garko and Sexson and Fielder, by all means. Seriously - a big function of GDPs is that you hit in an RBI position - and you've got lots of guys on base in front of you.
Truthfully, I see Kotchman as a role-of-the-dice. I like the "profile" of Kotchman in terms of age/hidden upside. But, every Gabe Gross doesn't work out.
No, he's unlikely to turn into Brian Giles with the Ms. But, I suspect if he did, the blogs would spend the next few years with every "say-what" pick-up by Z going - "what the heck am I missing?"
:)