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Who are the hitters being regressed? Are they guys that hit homeruns to Center or Left ever? Because Casey Kotchman doesn't really do that.
I got it from the THT article, http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/simple-xbabip-calculat... I didn't realize fangraphs even had a spot for that and can't find it. And advancing 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home isn't on Kotchman's plate, from the things his stats show and the way he's talked about, he does what the coaches tell him, so that's most likely their misjudgement.
The BABiP on 1/3 is laughable, certainly, but the 2/3rd BABiP I would bet on, as that's a position where coaches almost always bring the infield in, and it becomes so much easier to shoot one through the gaps.