Like I said in the other thread, I think Safeco is unlikely to help his HR/FB%. If anything, its more likely to depress it (Safeco penalized Lefty HRs by 5% the last three seasons), but perhaps the overall effect will be neutral considering the parks hes played. From the standpoint of basehits though, Kotchman will suffer with the majority of his production to left field (hit-wise as opposed to HR wise).
Which calculator are you using btw? They had his '07 xBABIP at .280 over at fangraphs. I really need to double-check that one (too lazy right now), but for a guy whose normally a little under 18 LD% career with an above-average IFFB% and questionable footspeed, .280 is probably about right.
I don't see evidence that Kotchman has been anything either than a poor baserunner. He scores significantly less than average when on base and hes been poor every single season in advancing 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, etc.
Perhaps hes a bad technical baserunner or very conservative (as opposed to a guy with a total lack of footspeed like Edgar), but regardless hes been conisistently one of the poorest baserunners in all of baseball.
Kotchman so far has had a 953 OPS with runners on 1 and 3rd and a 1.143 OPS with runners on 2nd-3rd. Call me skeptical, but I expect those stats to regress heavily in the future.
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