My take on Kotchman is he's got an ego the size of a mustard seed.
At age 22, he hit .836 in 143 PAs. Small sample - but 7 HRs and a 200 ISO and 75 patience score are wonderriffic for ANY 22-year old. And on that 2005 club, those stats trailed ONLY Vlad in OPS+. (122 to 154). He begins 2006 in a platoon with Quinlan. He starts slow - and a slow start turns into an outright drop dead slump which was the result of a VIRUS - (cost him 129 games). So, his 2006 stats are all tainted.
In 2007, he becomes the primary 1B in a straight-up platoon, (49 PAs against lefties all season compared to 459 PAs vs. righties). He posts a .296/.372/.467 (.840) line as a 24-year old.
In 2008, he's hitting .287/.327/.448 (.774) -- a bit of a sophomore slump, but certainly nothing to panic about for a 25-year-old with under 1000 major league PAs, who lost an entire season to disease. He gets traded away -- off a team that has double-digit division lead -- and that went 19-6 in his final month with the club. He'd had a great April, then slumped badly in May and June, (.693 and .590 OPS). But, he hit .733 for July, so he had pulled out of his slump -- and in point of fact, he his HRs in 3 of his final 4 games with Anaheim.
Only 3 regulars for Anaheim would finish with OPS+ over 100 in 2008. Kotchman was one of them. But, Kotchman (and his 101 OPS+) gets replaced by Tex, while guys like Figgins (82 OPS+), River (86 OPS+), Anderson (97 OPS+) stay behind.
I think when he landed in Atlanta - he was depressed. I think his .237/.331/.316 (.647) line with Atlanta in '08 was a direct result of being ROBBED out of a guaranteed post-season appearance.
By 2009, he had an entire off-season to get over it - and adjust to becoming Atlanta's 1B. Now - Atlanta did NOT opt to platoon him. For the FIRST time in his entire career, he was playing every day -- which also means, it was the first time he was facing lefties on a regular basis. He's certainly not good against lefties -- (.642 for '09). But his BB/K ratio against them wasn't awful (11/14). He had a miserable .255 BABIP against lefties in '09, which indicates to me he was hitting very defensively against them. But, it's his first time with any real exposure. Pretty normal.
And here's where it gets REAL interesting. Nice April (.798), poor May (.703), slump in June (.566 - complicated by a brief stint on the DL). But, he comes back (when) - in JULY. He hits .320/.427/.507 (.934) in July, (including 4 HRs that month - the same number he hit in July of '08). He hit HRs in 2 of his final 4 games in Atlanta.
Ding! Welcome to Boston.
In Beantown, he's not even the primary in a pure platoon. He's splitting time with Victor Martinez at 1B - (and Youkilis). He went from: "Our 1B for the future" -- to "But, he's only a platoon guy" -- to "You're our third option for a 1B".
I think - for a sub-25 guy -- getting THAT CLOSE to fulfilling the dream of being an MLB first-baseman heading to the World Series ... to an afterthought roster filler in a span of two years -- and **TWICE** getting deadline traded during your best hitting week of the season ... well, let's just say I don't personally know ANYBODY who would've handled that well.
In Boston, I think he didn't hit because, frankly, given the circumstances, he didn't really see the point.
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All that said. IF I am right, then one could easily make the argument that he's a mental midget, who is going to be a production headcase, (the hitter version of Weaver) - and shouldn't be counted on for anything.
But, I think a stronger case can be made that he's a potential fringe star - who could potentially make a MASSIVE upward jump in production, if he is given the proper mental coddling that his particular psyche needs. The good news for Seattle? Going back to full-blown platoon is a significant promotion from where he last was. They don't really need to go the Branyan route of risking him against lefties, (especially with Garko on board). BUT, if Garko gets hurt or something, then the club opting to play him both ways (for awhile) is that kind of mental nudge that could push his performance against RIGHTIES through the stratosphere.
From my perspective - I don't think there is a player in the entire Ms organization who could benefit more from seeing a "We Believe in You, Casey!" sign at a game. My 3,000 mile away armchair psychological profile of the guy says - you build up his confidence - you'll see a change in the way he looks at the plate - and perhaps a giant leap forward in production.
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