But, how many pitchers in the history of history have SUSTAINED a 7:1 K/BB, (regardless of hits or HRs allowed), is an abberation. It is unsustainable.
I see the logic as: "He did something that nobody in history has shown an ability to repeat -- therefore, we think he's going to be something special! (say, what?!?)
In 20 minutes I pulled out 10 pitchers who had similar one-time spikes in performance who went on to do nothing whatsoever.
I'm not saying out-of-bounds results by themselves mean failure. I'm saying out-of-bounds results MUST be viewed w/o hard-fast adherence to the accepted formula. Combine the 7:1 ratio WITH the 11 hits/9 -- and your pool of comps drops to zero. There aren't any comparable pitchers I can find anywhere. The closest I've seen IS Silva - though I fully accept that his Ks are not in the same range as Fisters -- but Silva did his miracle for 188 innings against major leaguers, while Fister did it for 110 in AAA.
While I was spending my 20 minutes looking for 7:1 failures - I was glancing for double-digit hits-allowed successes. I didn't see *ANY*. (I suspect there's gotta be some somewhere - this was 'by-hand' fishing - and I only got thru about 6 total minor league seasons to fill out my 10 7:1 failures). So, WHAT IF double-digit hits allowed in the minors is a 100% guarantee of major league failure?
If 7:1 K/BB is 100% success (which it clearly isn't), but 11-H/9 is 100% failure, what does the analyst conclude?
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