Well, first off, I can't find ANY sub-1 walk pitchers who SUSTAINED that ability for any length of time. But, fine - you issued a challenge - and all I have to do is find two handfuls of single-year abberations. You're on. I'll start looking - (2005 and before - so time to reach the majors). Meanwhile, I'd like you to go and find those 11-hit pitchers that weren't meatballs.
Steve Langone - 15.80 K/BB as a rookie (2000). 1.0 and 7.0 in 2005. Never reached AAA. Oddly, his career 8.0 H/9 and 0.5 HR/9 both say he should've fared much better.
Felix Romero - 7.91 K/BB in 2005.
Rich Hill - routinely fanned 12. Walks below 2 a couple of times. Actually had 0.7 HR and 6.6 hits/9 in the minors. But, in the MLB, walks exploded (4.0 for his 400 innings career). He managed to put together 1.5 good seasons. But, again - he did NOT have the hit problem in the minors that Fister has shown.
Chirs Gissell - managed 1.7 / 7.3 in AAA in 2004. Again, with a solid 7.9 hits allowed. He's 30, and still can't make the Show.
Richie Gardner had 1.5 / 8.0 numbers to begin his minors career in 2004. When he hit AAA, his hits/9 skyrocketed into double digits - and his control vanished completely.
Steve Bray - 1.2 and 7.9 in 2006 - 1.0 / 8.1 in Huntsville that year. But, couldn't sustain it as he failed repeatedly to climb the farm rungs.
Denny McDaniel - 1.5 and 9.2 in 2002. But, a decent 9 hits per game. Had a decent 2004 (2.9 / 8.3), but collapsed in '06 and was out of baseball.
Travis Thompson - 1.9 / 7.0 in 2003. Solid 8.7 hits. But, his H/9 were double-digit before that spike - and they returned to double-digits afterword. His career was done after 2006.
Brady Borner - 1.6 / 8.9 as a rookie in '01. 1.1 and 7.7 in '02, (only 8 hits per game). Unable to master AA -- and out of baseball after '06.
Nate Cotton - 1.0 / 9.0 in '01. 1.5 and 9.8 in '03, (nice 7.7 h/9). Unable to sustain the control in AAA, (walks up in the 3-4 arena), as his Ks dropped each year after reaching AAA. In '09 he was down to 4.0 / 5.6.
The real point here is that the entire PURPOSE of strikeouts is to REDUCE HITS. The K by itself is no more valuable than a soft grounder to first. It's still an out. But, Ks have value because they remove the 30% of the time the BIP becomes a hit. If your NORMAL 7-K pitcher is allowing 8 hits per game (for example), while your 5-K pitcher is allowing 9 -- the REASON the 7-ks have value is because the opposition gets fewer hits. But, if your 7-K pitcher is allowing 11 hits -- he's getting ZERO value form *ANY* of the Ks. If he is actually surrendering hits at the same rate as a (for example) 2-K (or less) pitcher -- then the Ks don't matter.
Fister is CLEARLY outside the normal SABR boundaries. *NOBODY* sustains sub-1 walk rates. It doesn't happen. Basing a conclusion off a stat that is clearly and completely throughout the entirety of history UNSUSTAINABLE is seriously bad analysis.
I get that you WANT to put Fister in the Duchscherer mold. In '03, Justin posted a 1.0 / 6.8 split with a 0.7 HR rate. But, he only allowed 8.8 hits. Thats an extra 2+ hits allowed by Fister. A "standard" SABR analysis might well pair up Fister with J.D. But, that ignores the minor league 2-hit different (8.5 to 10.4) between the two. That's why the comp falls apart. Because the basic foundation premise of WHY Ks have value has been lost in the analytical weeds.
At this point - I don't think Fister or Olson actually meets the minimum entry requirements for MLB. Olson is obvious to the SABE's because his weakness is gopheritis, which shows up nicely on the TTO charts. Fister's tell is outside the TTO Holy Trinity - so the group-think is that it isn't his fault.
The TTO formula work - but only on guys WITHIN certain boundaries. The sub-1 walk-rate is by definition outside that boundary - and cannot be maintained. I can't find ONE pitcher who maintained a sub-1 walk rate, regardless of K and HR rates - much less ten.
The 11-hit per game is another out-of-bounds stat.
A chemist can perform very accurate tests on metals - and they can reveal a lot of data. But, if the chemist attempts to test cotton, thinking it's metal the entire time, I suspect he's going to end up with a bunch of bad results.
Fister's 2.2 / 6.6 career splits in the minors aren't bad. That's top-flight control. And I suspect there are quite a few pitchers with those kind of career splits that has been decent MLB pitchers. But, I doubt ANY of them had career 10.4 H/9 number for the minors, (or 11.2 AAA H/9 numbers).
Washburn fools the analysts, because he doesn't get KS - but manages to consistently force weak contact - leading to a career-skewed BABIP beyond. His stats don't work in the TTO paradigm because some part of his game is outside its normal boundaries.
When talking about specs, specifically, I think the analysts' FIRST job is to decide whether you're dealing with an out-of-bounds player. Strasburg may well be an OOB guy, where the reasonable thing to do is NOT treat him as just 'another' #1 SP. I am thinking that back when I was arguing against treating him as special, I was likely wrong. It's because I was refusing to recognize that he IS an OOB guy.
My belief is that Fister is an OOB guy - but on the other end of the scale. I think Vargas and French remain borderline pitchers who might have some success. I think Olson at this point is pure AAAA - and his HR problems are unfixable. I think Fister is not even a AAA player. If my guess is right - he gets returned to AAA, is unable to regain the magic of '09 - and continues giving up a dozen hits a game in AAA until the club has had enough and just dumps him.
My larger concern is that my opinion of Zs pitcher acumen continues to drop.
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