My theory is that sky high hit rates are a symptom of lower than standard 'stuff' in the repetoire. What we know is that - "normal" hitters have .300-ish BABIPs. We know that some hitters can consistently beat that -- mostly by being spray hitters with speed. NOBODY knows where there balls are going - so you can't effectively hedge your defense the you can against everyone else. Additionaly, there are massive pull guys who defeat BABIP demons simply by hitting the ball so hard, even the shift doesn't matter.
Seeing a guy who is "consistently" at 10+ hits per game - from day one to present - that rings my bell that somehow this is a 'skill' that he owns. Since it is unlikely that Fister is making the Pablo Sandoval's of the world faster -- I'm going with the other likely culprit - that Fister - throughout his MINORS career - has gotten hit HARDER than his counterparts.
Of course, the stellar control mitigates this. Swap two walks for 1.5 hits, you can still survive (at least for awhile). But, it is the persistence of the extra 1.5 hits that I'm focusing on. Pitchers ROUTINELY spike to 10+ hits when changing levels - or even just having a bad year. So, I can write off a 'random' 11-hit period/season as just that - random. Maybe working on a pitch. Maybe changing his motion. If transient, then I'd remove it from my take on what he is - (or is likely to become).
So, my best theory is that from his first day in the pros until present day - Fister has consistently allowed a hit-and-a-half more than everyone around him. So, whether it is a case of too many mistake pitches -- or a tell on his change -- or a FB variant with no movement -- WHATEVER the cause -- it is one that multiple levels and coaches have not been able to detect and/or rid him of.
That said - if Seattle again has an 8.4 hit defense -- and Fister doesn't lose any additional ground to MLB hitters - he goes to 9.9 hits/9. There ARE a few pitchers who survive the majors at that level. But, he'd be post with a normal defense -- and my fear is that whatever it is that has allowed minor leaguers to get those extra 1.5 hits WILL be discovered by major league scouts - and when this happens, I fear that the 1.5 extra hits could turn into 3 extra hits, and it's back to Tacoma.
If he had fixed the hit issue when he posted the 7:1 ratio, I'd have a completely different take. But, he didn't fix it then - it got worse -- so, I've gotta stick with there is a significant flaw in Doogie's game "somewhere". Since nobody in the minors fixed it, I've gotta believe it's a regularly reoccuring transient. It isn't there 100% of the time - but it shows up enough to inflate his hits by 1.5 overall. So, I'd expect Doogie to have a wider-then-norm Delta between low and high hits compared to other like pitchers.
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