Add new comment

I have two dogs.  One is a black Lab.  The other a Chow-Shepherd mix.
The Chow-Shepherd is generally laid back - lazy -- tires easily.  Friendly (once he knows you) -- but afraid of anything new coming into his world -- even if he's met you 100 times.  He's gotta RE-learn trust every time.  That's Max.
Chewy is the black lab.  He loves EVERYBODY.  And all he wants is to be loved.  New - Old, Nice, Mean ... he doesn't care.  He wants to be friends and to be liked by everyone in the world.  But, if you raise your voice - (not at him - at ANYTHING - including the TV when UNC has just turned the ball over for the 12th time in the 1st half), he will TREMBLE as he nuzzles up beside you.  Emotionally - he simply cannot HANDLE negative waves.
The 2010 Mariners have Max and Chewy both on the roster.  Milton Bradley is Max -- afraid of everything -- his every instinct is to distrust EVERYONE.  You have to re-earn his trust on a daily basis - and when you've got it - couldn't be a more pleasant guy.  The least little thing wrong - he growls and barks and makes it very clear that you are not welcome.
They also have Chewy - Kotchman.  I will not even pretend to have scout-ish observational skills.  I couldn't tell you which pitches Chipper and Andrew like or hate.  The hot/cold zone charts would murder me. 
But, I *do* have pretty strong personality observational skills - (I score near dead center on 3 of 4 of the Myers-Briggs - which they say makes me capable of working with almost any personality around).  When Kotchman FIRST got to Atlanta, everything in his demeanor was that of a black lab who had just been scolded for having an accident.  His first month with the Braves, *I* was lost ... because he looked only slightly more comfortable at the plate than Adam Moore does at the moment.
But, by September, his demeanor changed.  A few hits fell in ... and he was gangbusters for the final 3 weeks of the season.  The ONLY player I had previously viewed with AS EXTREME a plate multi-personality was Andruw Jones - who for the entirety of his career would hit 1200 for two weeks and 500 for two weeks in random spurts.
In 2009, he BEGAN the season hitting just like the end of 2008.  He had a minor slump in May - but generally was the same hitter -- just a few extra balls finding glove instead of grass.  In June, he got hurt - he slumped a bit after returning -- standard scuffling.  In his final month - he absolutely caught fire.  He was *SEEING* the ball the way Bonds used to.  He was STALKING pitches for a month - and he CARRIED THE TEAM.  After an 11-15 June and 93 runs scored, the club would go 16-11 and score 139 in July.
Go look at the 2009 monthsly splits.  He hit .303 (.798) in April and .320 (.934) in July.  This was less than a year ago.  I've SEEN him, when he was fully engaged with his team, in top form - and doing precisely what he did back in 2007 -- and he was doing it during the 2009 season. 
And then he got shipped to Boston - where he became a part-timer - platoon bat and defensive replacement.  You want a split?  How about 13 PAs as a pinch hitter.  How many hits?  ZERO.  Two walks, three Ks - a .154 OPS (and a .000 BABIP).  Kotchman played in 39 games for Boston.  In 20 of them, he was a replacement. 
You want to get rid of Kotchman.  Platoon him.  He'll hit just like he did in Boston.  One of the reasons I want him moved up to 5th is because 5/6 is the normal break point for "good/bad" hitters on a club.  I think this sloshing him down to 7th in the order is going to do damage *IF* it is allowed to continue for any length of time.  At the moment, he's enjoying just being viewed as an INTEGRAL part of the team.  But, you leave him hitting 7th when 2-3 guys above him can't break .700 ... eventually it's gonna get to him, and he's gonna swoon badly because of it.
The thing about Kotchman is that he has got a SURREAL "eye".  Yes, he'll misread a pitch occasionally -- even Pujols does that.  He's not a HR hitter.  He's a spray hitter, more likely to hit balls in the gap than over the fence.  But, for his career, he doesn't have particularly severe splits vs. power or finesse pitchers - or LHP/RHP.  The ONLY significant split is he's vulnerable to groundball pitchers, (.673). 
Okay - I'm not a swing doctor.  He's got "his" swing.  It ain't great.  But his EYE is without question All-Star level.  But - for all his career stats - the totals are all suppressed - due to the 300 early-career struggles -- PLUS the double-dip post-trade blues.  Between those that's maybe 1/3 of his total PAs for his career.  So, 1/3 of his MLB PAs were either during 'auditioning' or 'depression'. 
I've seen "hot" batters.  And I've seen batters who are just "cruising".  The "hot" guys typically have thru-the-roof unsustainable BABIPs.  EVERYTHING is falling.  In July, 2009, when Kotch was having his .934 'career month' ... his BABIP was .303.  Kotchman's "mindset" is to be tentative UNTIL he is accepted as a quality contributor.  THEN - he gets better.
Right now -- with Seattle -- Kotchman is STILL tentative.  His eye is exactly what it has always been.  But, he's hitting UNDER his ability -- but has gotten lucky with a couple of gophers.  So, his ISO is skewed -- but his BABIP is WAAAAY too low (.225).  I completely without reservation believe - IF ALLOWED TO PLAY FULL TIME -- and in the MEAT of the lineup -- Kotchman *IS ALREADY* a .300 hitter with .850 potential.  He doesn't have to add ANYTHING to his game that has not already been demonstrated.  His eye NEVER slumps.  And the slumps he's had in his career are all either injury or trade related. 
Oh, he could scuffle for a .700 OPS for a month -- but even then he'll still have a 1:1 eye, and .320 OBP.  His leverage at the plate - his turning on the ball is NOT a function of his physical limitations.  It is dependent on his mental state.  Personally, I'd rather have Kotch hitting 3rd with Gutz in the #5 slot -- because Kotch has the EYE that can allow the speedsters to steal - and is (IMO), the most likely player outside of Ichiro on the entire roster to actually hit .300.