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Do I believe the Fister we've seen if "for real?"  Not in a million years.  Go show me a 0.0 HR/9 pitcher to comp him to, and I'll consider I'm in error. 
But, the Doc gave me reason to believe there is a possibility that Fister actually made a transition which has remedied the H/9 debacle that he was in the minors -- but did so late enough in AAA that it doesn't show up in the stats.
So, I am open to the concept that Fister's upside might well be Washburn or Buehrle.
The problem here is that waaaay too much of Fister's 2010 performance is clearly out-of-bounds in terms of sustainability.  His BABIP was .241 headed into his 3-hit 3-K in 8-inning effort -- meaning it just got even better.
Having been one of the Washburn supporters - who noted Washburn had PROVEN an ability to beat the BABIP god for a decade - meaning he had a SKILL at doing it - I clearly have an open mind to that possibility.  But Washburn, the kind of BABIP suppression -- managed a .275 for his career -- (and likely had above-average defenses behind him in more than half his seasons -- PCA probably has a better read on that than I).
But, both Buehrle and Washburn had 5.3 K/9 rates.  Fister is a full K under that at the moment.  (But, I would agree that ticking that K-rate up above 5 isn't implausible).
At this point, there is zero doubt hitters are clueless against his 'slop', (for lack of a better word). 
The danger in getting too high on Fister is that his profile doesn't comp well with ANYBODY - (not when you include the H/9 numbers).  So, he's something of an anomaly.  The one thing I'd caution about is that when you look at early career comps for guys like Buerhle and Washburn, you see a lot of washouts - like HoRam - Steve Avery - Dontrelle -- guys that had a great flash - followed by horrendous burn-outs.  (Silva would apply, also).
I'm enjoying the ride - and wish him no ill will.  But, ANY pitcher who is beating team DER by 40 points or more is gonna have to show me multiple YEARS of such behavior before I slide him over into the 'skill' category in regards to BABIP results. 
Before getting too overjoyed - I'd consider that Carlos Silva currently has a 6/21 BB/K split with a 2.90 ERA and only 25 hits in 31 innings.  The diff between the two at this moment is Silva has allowed 4 HRs and Fister none.  Of course, Silva is fanning almost 2 extra batters per 9 at the moment. 
Honestly, if I had to predict - I'd expect a good first half for Fister - and a second half collapse.  When the offenses and air get warm - how many flies leave the park will be critical -- and how does he respond when the opponent is getting 8 hits in 6 innings, instead of 3. 
The Doc's analysis gives me hope that the H and HR issues won't be as large as I originally imagined.  But, the scenario that I fear the most is that he pitches well enough for long enough - that when the opposition DOES adjust - and (if) he starts stringing bad outings together -- how long does the club stick with him?
Honestly - how large is the gulf between say - Washburn and Jaku?  It's a much thinner margin than most believe. 
The odd thing is that my personal 'hero' pitcher is Maddux -- the guy I view as the ultimate combination of control and guile with limited 'stuff'.  My belief with Fister is that he reached the major without the 'minimum' skill needed to survive.  I'm willing to consider I 'might' have been wrong in that assessment.  But, I could still be right - even if he puts together 2-3 good months -- if he only has 4-K 'stuff' -- even if he sustains sub-2 walk rates, it may not be enough. 
The big plus for him is he's got a Class A defense - and a pitcher-friendly park going for him.  So, perhaps he'll have time to work through the rough patches without hurting the team badly and come out the other side as a viable Washburn clone.  That's best case.
Worst case is when he starts getting hit, the club sticks with him too long waiting for Jaku to turn back into Buehrle again.

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