The Ackley/Strasburg argument needs to be put under the microscope of comparing "general" pitcher to hitter injury ratios. I don't know the total numbers - but I an 99% certain that top hitting prospects wash out "due to injury" at an incredibly low rate.
But, regardless of hype, talent, etc. - pitchers "as a group" wash out - (or are delayed) far more routinely due to injury.
(Each class has plenty of non-injury failures - and I have no real idea of the ratio if injuries are removed from the picture -- though if (as an example), 30% of pitchers wash out due to injury - chances are some number of those would wash out regardless of injury - so the math gets problematic quickly.
As a "general" rule, you want to select hitters over pitchers early in the draft, because pitchers get "career killing" injuries far more frequently. But, Strasburg was MUCH further ahead of the other college pitchers than Ackley was compared to the other college hitters, so injury isn't the only variable to consider.
In the end, whether it's Lineccum or Starsburg ... or Brien Taylor ... drafts don't come with guarantees. EVERY selection is a risk - (and this is why I'm strongly against the idea of paying $50 million to someone who hasn't stepped on a major league field). IMO, it's an insult to EVERY guy who has ALREADY put in several years in the majors - (after many in the minors), before THEY got financially rewarded. In the end, it is the fans, (not the owners), who pay for every failed bonus baby. When you're blowing a million here and there - not a huge effect -- when you blow $50 million on one guy, (who may never actually play in the majors), the ripple effects multipy.
I hope - (for baseball) - that Strasburg comes back from TJS and stars as he's expected to do. But, I continue to shake my head at the concept of paying the "hasn't done a thing yet" prospect 45 *TIMES* as much as you pay the league minimum rookie who just hit .280 with 20 HRs -- or pitched 130 innings with a 2.89 ERA.
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