This is where your minor league evaluations are critical.
If you've already got Josh Beckett and AJ Burnett in your minor leagues, then ADDING them to Felix Hernandez and Doug Fister and maybe Erik Bedard makes your staff look crazy-good. Pitchers don't have to necessarily have adjustment periods like most hitters do when getting promoted. If a pitcher can execute, then he can execute. If his stuff is hard to hit, then it's hard to hit.
A hitter has to get used to faster FBs, better offspeed and location...a pitcher has to see spot, hit spot. Be deceptive.
Robles has a 3.44 FIP with 10K/4.25BB and is basically unhittable when he's on.
Pineda has a 2.31 FIP with 9.6K/2BB and is just as unhittable.
If Pineda and Robles are T-minus a few months away (and FYI, Hensley is not chopped liver yet either) then you have an instant boost to your 2011 pitching staff already, if you have the stones to play them. Losing Cliff Lee hurts, but Cliff is pitching as well as Wash was pitching. In the playoffs, having a Cliff Lee absolutely matters. If you've set your team up to be a defensive juggernaut, though, then he matters less in the regular season because you can get "lucky" performances from the Fisters of the world for 19.5 milion cheaper.
What we need are hitters. Ackley will be coming up, and will get a higher-than-rookie-norm OPS because his eye is so freakin' good.
There's no one else right now. Raben is interesting and at least a couple of years away. Ditto Poythress. Peguero has been interesting, but his .433 BABIP vs RHP is not gonna last forever, and his K rate, like Raben's, is highly concerning.
We can't just wait for Franklin to bomb out or climb his way to the bigs.
And we didn't draft any close-to-the-majors hitters in the draft.
Bats have to come from outside. That will take money, and it will take trades. If I could, I would trade Ichiro and Cliff Lee, leave Felix as The Man (when did he start struggling? When Cliff Lee came back...) and reap the rewards of the trade of two mega-talents, plus use their combined 35ish million next year to buy some additional talent back.
We won't trade Ichiro. If I was guaranteed Lee, then I might consider trading Felix, but we HAVE Felix for 5 years. Lee hasn't signed anything. Keep the guy you've got, who's been very healthy to boot, and move Lee for prospects closer to the bigs than our 2011 draftpicks for him would be.
Sign Victor Martinez, unless the Yanks give us Jesus Montero I guess.
Victor gives us a 30-40 OPS+ boost at catcher, easily.
Ackley will improve on what has happened in LF.
Sign a 1B - heck, add Jorge Cantu for all I care - he has a decent glove and can actually put up a 110 OPS+ which Kotchman will never do.
It doesn't help us this year, but it's why I would promote Pineda over some other pitcher options, either before or after Lee is moved. Get him the experience so that everyone feels more "Comfortable" with adding another rook or two to the staff and the lineup.
2011:
Ichiro
Figgins
Cantu - 103 OPS+ career, age 30
V-Mart - 121 OPS+ career, age 32
F-Gut
Bradley
Lopez
Josh Wilson
Ackley
Carp can DH for Bradley if we have to cut him, or move to 1B if we trade Lopez (Cantu would play 3rd in that scenario I suppose). This puts Ackley in LF for a season (or half a season) til we figure out Jose. But it's workable.
Isn't that the offense we were trying for this year? Ichiro leading off, Chone hitting like he has the last coupla weeks in the 2 hole, a series of moderate bats who can hold their own well above 100 OPS+ but no monster going through the MOTO and winding up with some speed and OBP at the back of the order?
Yeah.
I don't think it was a horrible plan. It was just utterly sabotaged by the players chosen to execute it. And by swapping out 2 guys at Black-Hole-One (catcher) and Black-Hole-Two (first base) we can step some of the bleeding that amputated our ability to execute this year.
But there are worse things than trying to put together a good-but-not-great lineup, getting some young, affordable players to the roster (like Pineda, Robles, Hensley, Ackley, Wilson, Fister, Fields, etc) who can hold their own or even impress, and then see if you want to drop a bunch of money in the lap of a Prince Fielder or an A-Gone after the 2011 season when we get relief from the 12 mil we're paying Bradley.
Swapping Cantu back to 3B and posting Fielder at 1B or DH in 2012 changes that offense A LOT. It's something I'd work on if I was the Ms.
If Pineda is what we think he is, in front of a good defense especially, then he mitigates the loss of Lee as well. And this lineup doesn't include any spoils from any trades.
We're not sunk forever. I don't NEED us to blow it all up and start over. With Ichiro, F-Gut, Ackley shortly, and the pitching staff that needs some reworking (but will every year, and we have the arms to do it) but has talent, we have enough pieces to not require a total rebuild.
We could blow it up by trading Felix and Lee (and at that point, Ichiro) and I'm not entirely opposed. But selecting more appropriate players to execute stage two of our overhaul would be a preferrable path, to me.
I've watched the Marlins and the Indians do the blow it up thing. It takes half-a-decade to recover, at least. I don't think I can take 5 more years of 2008/2010.
And with our resources, I SHOULDN'T HAVE TO.
~G
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