I find myself in an odd spot.
I approved of not re-signing Branyan when he was asking lots for 2 years.
I was a big fan of Carp before Carp was even traded to the Ms.
Zeke Carrera was my first batting adopt-a-player selection.
I freely admit that I was wrong about Kotchman on a dozen counts, (and right about his 5 cent head). I have grown LESS enthusiastic about Carp with each passing month. I have also grown less enthusiastic about Zeke each month.
Basically, to say I support this trade - *I* have to admit I was wrong on three counts, (and I do).
But, the dynamic I see going on with the Branyan pickup is one of REWARDING effort. Coming into June, it looked very much like the club was about to do a complete fold-up on the 2010 season. The defense was dragging - the bullpen imploding - and a 100 loss season seemed like an optimistic view for the final 4 months of 2010.
The club had a meeting and started winning - including their longest win streak of the season.
CLEARLY, every guy on the Ms understands that the offense stinks. They KNOW they are last in HRs. They certainly know they've lost a ton of walk-off games. But, they came out and kicked butt for a week even though the offense was just as stinky as ever.
So, Z went out and rewarded the current team with an actual HR-hitting slugger. Does that mean they're going to win 22 in a row and make the playoffs? Not a chance. But, it does answer a question MANY players might've been asking -- "Is management going to support *US* for continuing to work hard - even in a lost cause?"
I can very easily see Matt's point of view. From a purely numerical, hard science view, (depending on the weight of the variables), his argument could be very reasonable. Obviously, the value of the particular prospects in question is debateable - as is the value of snagging another aging, injury-prone slugger.
But, I believe, a good ORGANIZATION, can *NEVER* forget that it is dealing with people. Matt changed his sig at MC to "Milton Bradley's Biggest Fan" - not because of his production - but because of the human element involved. And regardless of whether Bradley turns things around - Seattle will receive a benefit throughout baseball from the way they have handled Bradley. The concept of respect - of accepting the human aspects of the game - even while demanding the production - complicates things immensely.
I have watched the Marlins do the 100% correct by-the-numbers rebuild through fire sale TWICE. They have a pair of WS rings to show for their savvy. And in the process, they alienated a huge chunk of their fan base AND pretty much nuked any concept of "club-player loyalty" from existing for 20 years.
While there are times to say -- "thanks, but it's time to move on" - (which the club should've done with Griffey after his horrid ST) -- the plus-minus of the human equation cannot be ignored. It exists. It is very real. And it has consequences both in the present and future.
The Branyan move rewards the players RIGHT NOW. It rewards the fans who are sticking with the team RIGHT NOW. And the future cost in terms of production is debateable. Certainly, if Zeke turns into Rod Carew the club will regret the trade. But, there's nothing I see in Zeke to suggest his upside is beyond Podsednik.
And while *I* was the one screaming before the season that 2010 needed to be veiwed (and used) as a rebuilding year - to give the prospect some substantial PT -- how many PAs with Carp hitting worse than Griffey can be allowed before the other 8 guys on the field view the situation as one where MANAGEMENT has given up?
One of my mantras is that management cannot simply "say" how things should be. They have to back up their rhetoric with action. If the club wants the players to not simply tank the rest of the season, then management cannot tank the season in June.
Frankly, while the club was slow to react to the offensive slump -- when 7 of 9 are slumping, there really isn't anything that can be done, (except fire the coaces). Well, Lopez and Figgy have started hitting a little - and Johnson, too. So, the offensive morass is at a point where fixing the weakest link (still DH and 1B) *IS* the proper move in terms of 2010. In fact, it's the right thing for 2011, too. Improve wherever you're worst. It is usually the cheapest, lowest risk, and most impactful move for any club.
In the end, the human equation doesn't have nice formulas and great history and comps to judge against. I think the club made a "human" leaning decision to bring Griffey back where the production side of things said it was a bad idea and it hurt them. Here, I think they made a choice that might well be more human leaning than production based, (though I think the production arguments can be made to suggest that this is a lateral move in regards to the current and future production in play -- with Gutz and Ichiro locked up and Saunders already in play for LF, Zeke's future value to the Ms was likely tied to a trade anyway. The question is, will his trade value increase or decrease beyond today?).
In the end, I think the club whiffed on the 2010 season largely due to the choice to bring Griffey back - (coupled with Sweeney). The move that made sense in a rebuilding year made little to no sense in a contending year. For 2011? I see zero chance that the club can "contend" in 2011 without Branyan. With him - I think there is a chance, depending on what other chips Z rakes in. But the #1 surefire way to kill 2011 is to allow the players to believe that 2011 is a "phone-it-in" year.
Outside of the true - sell multiple stars "fire sale" - the easiest way to build a perpetually losing organization is to say, "it's okay to phone it in this year." Once that mindset arrives, it can be nearly impossible to shake. Just ask teams like Pittsburgh, KC, Baltimore.
Did the club need help at 1B? Unequivicabally.
Did the club need Zeke any time soon? Only in the event of a season-killing injury.
Because of Branyan maybe the club wins 75 instead of 70. But, the damage done by sitting by and watching the ship sink is the danger I see -- of 2011 being another 60 win season ... and the one after that.
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