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But if you're talking top-end projections and Montero is somehow an 80/80, what is Smoak?  75/70?  Or do you think he's significantly less now that you've seen more of him (while he's slumping, and not as much of Montero)?
 
If Smoak winds up being a 55/50 or something and Montero hits his 80/80 then yes, obviously we're idiots and Jack is fired and we're lamenting this trade forever while being miserable about Montero's HOF career.
 
But even if you're right and Montero is Frank Thomas, and Smoak is "only" John Olerud (who, btw was 140 points worse against LHP for his near-HOF career)...are we really whining about that? 
 
"We could have had Mike Piazza but instead we only got Justin Morneau?" What's that?  Morneau is 130 points worse against lefties too?  You'd think you can be a perennial All-Star with the exact skillset that Smoak shows. :)  And I can't complain about a perennial All-Star.  That would be like drafting Tulowitzki and complaining he didn't hit like Braun.  You can build a team around EITHER player.  I know the Ms and Astros weren't regretting that Edgar and Bagwell weren't QUITE what Frank Thomas was. 
 
If Smoak is Kotchman redux, we're boned.  If you're not arguing that, then we're talking about one man's chances to hit his 130-140 OPS+ sweetspot versus another man's ability to get to his 150ish one.
 
Personally, I think both guys will be in the 125-135 range, and Smoak's better glove and better park fit should outweigh the extra 5-10 OPS points Montero might find.
 
And I don't think it's unbelievable that Smoak winds up as the better bat.
 
~G